Daily Forex Forecast 03/13/2013
Australian Dollar:
Without much help the Australian dollar consolidated its gains from overnight Monday, remaining within its recent ranges against the Greenback intraday yesterday. Whilst commodities have continued their strong run as have equities, overall global risk sentiment has contributed in a positive way to the higher yielding currency over the past 24 hours. Firming considerably as the currency entered North American trade investors didn’t shy away from picking the Aussie dollar as it comfortably passed through upside resistance at 1.0300. Reaching an eventual high of 1.0334 against the Greenback the Aussie opens once again stronger at a rate of 1.0320
We expect a range today of 1.0280 – 1.0350
New Zealand Dollar
Despite an ASB survey released yesterday which showed businesses expected the New Zealand dollar to peak around mid-year before declining, essentially benefitting importers the New Zealand dollar opens little changed this morning. With US Stocks finally stopping to take a breath there is a general sense that markets have run out of steam and at the very least are due for a period of consolidation. Touching lows of 0.8230 against the Greenback traders have also pondered over the past 24 hours the impact of the widespread drought which still grips the North Island. Opening this morning at a very similar level to where we left, currently buying 82.57 US Cents, investors are likely to remain on the sidelines leading into the RBNZ meeting tomorrow
We expect a range today of 0.8230- 0.8290
Great British Pound:
In levels not seen since early 2010 the Great British Pound crashed even lower overnight following an official report which showed manufacturing dropped by 1.5 percent in January. In reports consistent with the onset of a triple-dip recession the Sterling slumped to a low of 1.4830 against the Greenback. Whilst the Pound did recover a large portion of its earlier losses we open this morning still under pressure at a rate of 1.4901. Meanwhile on the cross rates the Great British Pound is weaker against the Aussie (1.4438) however stronger against a softer Kiwi (1.8043)
We expect a range today of 1.4410 – 1.4470
Majors:
In figures released from Washington overnight the fewest amount of workers were fired in January, showing that employers are slowly gaining confidence in the US expansion story. With only 1.51 million being let go for the month, this is the lowest number in 12 years, adding to signs that the labour market is finally starting to normalize. In other happenings, having come so far in the first quarter of this year global equities were mildly weaker overnight, consolidating gains as movements across currency markets were also muted. Reversing 4 days of losses the JPY strengthened after rumours spread that one of PM’s Shinzo Abe’s nominees for the BOJ deputy governor position may struggle to win enough votes to be elected given opposing parties have rejected his candidacy. Moving to a low of 95.631 the JPY is stronger against the Greenback opening this morning at 96.00. Meanwhile a quick look at the Euro reveals an uneventful session as it currently trades in familiar territory at a rate of 1.3032.
Data releases
AUD:
Home Loans m/m
NZD: FPI m/m
JPY:
No data today
GBP: No data today
EUR:
French CPI m/m
USD:
Core retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Import Prices m/m, Business Inventories m/m