Daily Forex Forecast 03/28/2012
Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar remained flat yesterday with the higher-yielding currency stopping to take a breath for much of the domestic session. In what has been a choppy few days throughout markets, in the absence of any local data the Australian dollar found some early upside trading to a late afternoon high of 1.0557 against its US Counterpart. With global equities finishing around 0.1 percent higher the US Currency edged up from the previous session of losses following the Federal Reserve’s signal that it would continue to loosen Monetary Policy. Looking ahead this evening direction is again likely to come out of the US with the Australian dollar struggling to find any real support above the 1.05 handle. Meanwhile this morning The Aussie opens half a cent lower currently swapping hands at a rate of 1.0470
We expect a range today of 1.0420 – 1.0520
New Zealand Dollar
In one of the quietest sessions we’ve seen in recent weeks the New Zealand Dollar has trotted between a very a skinny range over the course of the past 24 hours. After opening the day at a rate of 0.8230 against its US Counterpart, investors took the riskier backed asset to an early evening high of 0.8263 before disappointing US Data in the form of Consumer Confidence bought the Kiwi back to where we see it this morning, currently buying 82.04 US Cents. With concerns continuing to mount that China’s economic growth will slow, reducing demand for New Zealand’s exports, the Kiwi appears well capped around its current levels with rumours of a slow and soft landing from China likely to see the New Zealand economy encounter some difficulties.
We expect a range today of 0.8160 – 0.8260
Great British Pound
UK Stocks dropped around half a percent yesterday as The Great British Pound traded between losses and gains against its US Counterpart. Having temporarily touched the critical 1.60 against the Greenback, investors lacked conviction to hold such levels as the Sterling finished the day in the red. With final GDP figures due for release this evening a positive reading may be enough to kick the Sterling out its tight trading range of 1.5941 - 1.6000 that we have seen over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile this morning following an uninspiring day of trade the Sterling did manage to find some upside on the cross-rates opening stronger against both the Australian dollar (1.5239) and the New Zealand dollar (1.9431)
We expect a range today of 1.5180 – 1.5300
Majors:
Markets have remained at relatively depressed levels over the past 24 hours ever since Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reminded us at all that Central Banks around the world will struggle to continually stimulate growth. With the Greenback being sold off across the board for the early parts of this week there was some respite for the world’s reserve currency in overnight trade as it opens noticeably stronger against the Japanese Yen at a rate of 83.129. Whilst in the US, a report released overnight showed consumer confidence dipped in March but was very close to forecast while inflationary expectations rose to their highest level in 10 months. In an overall flat session the S&P 500 continued its upward trend gaining a measly 0.1 percent. Given the slight return back into the Greenback the 17-Nation Euro suffered as a result falling to an overnight low of 1.3316 against its US Counterpart before opening weaker this morning at a rate of 1.3326. Looking ahead this week the key data release markets are looking out for lie within final GDP figures which are expected out of the US overnight Thursday.
Data releases
AUD:
RBA Financial Stability Review
NZD: No Data Today
JPY:
No Data Today
GBP: Current Account, Final GDP q/q, Revised Business Investment q/q
EUR:
German Prelim CPI m/m, M3 Money Supply y/y, Private Loans y/y
USD:
Core durable goods orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Crude Oil Inventories