Daily Forex Forecast 04/09/2013
Australian Dollar:
Whilst a survey yesterday showed the total number of job advertisements declined by 1.5 percent in March the Australian dollar consolidated its losses from over the weekend trading close to its opening level of 1.0370 for much of the intraday session. Given the Australian dollar has made several attempts at the 1.05 mark over the past week it now appears destined to once again trade within the familiar range of 1.0350 -1.0450. In a relatively quiet session overnight investors bought the Australian dollar due to the lack of a better alternative as JPY and USD sellers continued to flood the market. Gaining half of one US Cent as a result the Aussie dollar is stronger this morning at 1.0410.
We expect a range today of 1.0380 – 1.0440
New Zealand Dollar
Despite a lacklustre performance against the Greenback over the early parts of this week the New Zealand dollar rose to a five year high against the Japanese Yen yesterday. Following the announcement last week that the Bank of Japan would double the expected amount of monthly bond purchases to 7 trillion yen the Kiwi rose to 82.68, the highest level since May 2008. With no data releases to note overnight the New Zealand dollar has done well to rally against the Greenback as investors now look towards key quarter one economic indicators from China this week. Opening this morning stronger currently buying 84.60 US Cents, the New Zealand dollar will also take direction from the release of the NZIER business confidence survey which is due out shortly
We expect a range today of 0.8430 – 0.8490
Great British Pound:
The Great British Pound has weakened against the Greenback for the first time in three days overnight that is despite a report which showed UK business sentiment improved in March. Falling to a low of 1.5238 there were hints of profit taking in movements overnight with investors hesitant to fully commit to a sustained upward trend. Opening this morning weaker at a rate of 1.5255 any indication of improved manufacturing production when figures are released this evening should see the losses accumulated overnight reversed. Meanwhile on the cross rate the Sterling is weaker against the New Zealand dollar (1.8024) whilst stronger against the Australian dollar (1.4650)
We expect a range today of 1.4620 – 1.4680
Majors:
The Japanese Yen continued to tumble overnight, falling beyond the 99 per dollar mark for the first since May 2009. Amid speculation that The Bank of Japan’s deflation fighting bond purchases will continue to debase the currency both in the shorter and longer-term, the Yen has fallen against all 16 of its major counterparties overnight. Topping out just short of the key psychological level around 100 against the Greenback the Yen opens this morning weaker at 99.38. Whilst Japanese Yen weakness and a softer US Dollar have dominated currency markets in the early parts of this week the tone across markets overnight was relatively upbeat with investors keen to see the start of earning’s season across US equity markets. Outside of the two large movers the Euro has continued its solid performance moving to an overnight high of 1.3036 against its US Counterpart. With better than expected German Industrial output figures for the month of February acting as a catalyst, optimism is high that Europe’s largest economy is starting to stabilize following its contraction in the final quarter of 2012.
Data releases
AUD:
NAB Business confidence
NZD: NZIER Business Confidence
JPY:
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
GBP: Manufacturing Production m/m, Trade Balance, Industrial Production
EUR:
No data today
USD:
No data today