Daily Forex Forecast 06/16/2011
Australian Dollar:
The Australian Dollar rose during intraday trade yesterday as it held onto its gains of the previous 3 days versus the US Currency. The Australian Dollar was driven to an intra-day high of 1.0713 as the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said that policy makers will need to raise interest rates at some stage in the foreseeable future.
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Taking a more hawkish stance than the rhetoric heard out of the Central Banks minutes released last week, the market gained a further reassurance that rates will rise as inflationary pressures are expected to mount in coming years. Despite strong demand in the local session, the Australian Dollar was sold heavily during European Trade as Global Risk Aversion told hold, driving the currency a full one a half cents lower to 1.0534. As concerns continue to mount surrounding the inability of European Leaders to find common ground as to how best deal with the Greek Debt situation the Aussie opens this morning at a rate of 1.0555.
We expect a range today of 1.0510 - 1.0610
New Zealand Dollar:
Following a relatively flat start to the day New Zealand Retail Sales figures released yesterday showed a total sales increased by 0.9 percent for first quarter compared with the three months ending December 2010. While such results did provide a generally positive outlook on the pace of economic recovery following the deadliest earthquake in 80 years the positive figures were marginally worse than the expected 1 percent result. With the New Zealand dollar losing mild ground during local trade the kiwi was sold further throughout the offshore session reaching an eventual low of 80.30 against its US Counterpart. As European Leaders inability to overcome the deadlock as to how best aid Greece from a potentially devastating default scenario, risk aversion struck the market as we see the New Zealand Dollar open low this morning buying 80.49 US Cents
We expect a range today of 0.8020 - 0.8120
Great British Pound:
The Great British Pound opens almost 2 cents lower this morning at a rate1.6175 against the Greenback, in what proved an ordinary day for the Sterling. UK Stocks also lost ground as British Jobless Claims surged more than forecast with the Official Unemployment Rate remaining steady, as expected at a rate of 7.7 percent. With European Sovereign Debt Concerns again dominating the headlines overnight, investors are becomingly increasingly wary of the ongoing divergence between the views of European Leaders as to how best develop a financial aid package for the heavily indebted Greece. Given the volatility which gripped markets overnight it the Sterling opens noticeably unchanged against the Australian Dollar currently trading at a rate of 1.5317.
We expect a range today of 1.5280- 1.5380
Majors:
US Stocks Sank the most in 2 weeks overnight as poor economic data played havoc with equity and currency markets. On the data front The Federal Reserve Bank of New York Manufacturing Index dropped to minus 7.8 percent its lowest level seen in 7 months as Industrial Production Figures released also coming in worse than expected showing growth of 0.1 percent. With Further signs of a weaker US economy and CPI Data showing a spike in prices of 0.2 percent against a forecasted rise of 0.1 percent, the existence of lagging growth and higher inflation remains an undesired combination. Meanwhile in the EURO Zone, after opening the day at a rate of 1.4412 against its US Counterpart the EURO was sold across the board overnight reaching an eventual low 1.4121 as European Leaders continue to make very little progress towards on a new Aid package for Greece. With mounting political tensions in Greece and a distinct lack of mutual agreement the EURO is set to remain volatile in short-term opening this morning at a rate of 1.4173
Data releases
AUD: MI Inflation Expectations, New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m, RBA Bulletin
NZD: Westpac Consumer Sentiment, Business NZ Manufacturing Index, Manufacturing Sales q/q.
JPY: No Data Today
GBP: Retail Sales m/m
EUR: ECB Monthly Bulletin, CPI y/y, Employment Change q/q.
USD: Unemployment Claims, Current Account, housing starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index,
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