Daily Forex Forecast 07/13/2012
Australian Dollar
Triggering a large sell-off in the Australian dollar yesterday, Australian employers unexpectedly reduced payrolls in the month June. Shifting the new headline Unemployment Rate up to 5.2 percent from a previous 5.1 percentage a total of 27 000 jobs went by the wayside, a number well below even the most pessimistic of forecasts. Following the announcement, the Aussie dollar initially fell half a cent against its US Counterpart, passing straight through previous interim support at 1.02. As the higher-yielding asset entered North-American trade the bearish sentiment continued as speculation has again mounted over a possible fifth interest rate cut by the Central in just nine months. With Chinese GDP expected out today, choppy conditions are likely to remain common place in an environment becoming increasingly volatile. Meanwhile this morning the Aussie opens a staggering full US Cent lower currently trading at 1.0138 against its US Counterpart, having been as low as 1.0099 in overnight trade.
We expect a range today of 1.0090 – 1.0185
New Zealand Dollar
In a significant shift in global sentiment overnight investors made a distinguished move away from riskier back assets. With markets still reeling from the lack of future stimulus promises from the US Fed on Wednesday there remains an increasingly cautious approach being adopted by Central Banks around the globe. Signs for the kiwi yesterday were not good as one way traffic saw the higher-yielding currency headed only one way, south. After starting the day at 0.7956 against its US Counterpart, overnight lows of 0.7860 were witnessed before support kicked in to where open this morning, buying 78.96 US Cents. Looking ahead today, all eyes will be on Chinese Growth figures which are due for release around midday with any reading above the expected figure of 7.7 percent for the 3 months ended June 30 likely to provide some relief for the New Zealand dollar.
We expect a range today of 0.7860 – 0.7940
Great British Pound:
With nothing in the form of local data to provide support for the Great British Pound overnight, traders took the opportunity to sell the Sterling, following the majority of global stock indexes lower. Given the outlook for global growth remains somewhat muted the Sterling has been able to free itself from the Shackles of Europe’s woes with no definitive solutions being delivered from European Policy Makers. Trading between a 24 range of (1.5392 – 1.5515) against its US Counterpart the Sterling starts today 60 basis points lower at 1.5420. Meanwhile on the cross rates, given the large shift away from risk bearing assets its little surprise to see the Sterling open stronger against both the Aussie (1.5211) and the Kiwi (1.9503).
We expect a range today of 1.5170 -1.5250
Majors:
Whilst the US Federal Reserve may of disappointed markets with their lack of future Stimulus promises earlier on Wednesday the same cannot be said for both Korea and Brazil with both Central Banks adding Stimulus overnight. Continuing the recent theme of heightened liquidity the Bank of Japan also increased their asset purchasing facility as investors continue to remain relatively pessimistic on their outlooks for global growth over the coming 12 months. In a bearish session across markets global Stocks slide for a seventh straight day, corporate earnings failed to impress whilst consumer sentiment figures due out of the US this evening are also likely to paint a gloomy picture. Despite the negative slant of markets recently, some good news was found overnight in the form of weekly jobless claims in the US which fell to 350 000 whilst Industrial Production figures throughout Europe also surprised on the upside growing by 0.6 percent for the month of June. On the currency front it was a similar story for the 17-nation Euro which slumped to fresh two-years of 1.2166 against its US Counterpart recovering only somewhat this morning, swapping hands a rate of 1.2200.
Data releases
AUD:
No Data Today
NZD: No Data Today
JPY:
Revised Industrial Production m/m, BOJ Monthly Report
GBP: CB Leading Index m/m,
EUR:
Italian 10-y Bond Auction
USD:
PPI m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment,