Daily Forex Forecast 07/24/2012
Australian Dollar: In what proved to be a tumultuous week for the Australian Dollar with ranges of more than five US Cents being witnessed a sense of normality was temporarily restored throughout the foreign exchange market on Friday. While the Nations Currency did run into some selling pressure reaching a late domestic session low of 1.0244 against its US Counterpart the Australian Dollar rebounded well throughout US Trading hours opening this morning at a rate of 1.0350. Looking ahead this week, the recent turbulence experienced is likely to remain as the Australian Dollar remains hostage to wider global developments particularly the ongoing fears of European Sovereign Debt Contagion.
We expect a range today of 1.0280 - 1.0450
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar opens relatively unchanged this morning at a rate of 0.8321 against its US Counterpart. Having dropped 1.6 percent versus the Dollar last week the Kiwi enjoyed a relatively subdued day of local trade last Friday. In overnight trade, the kiwi worked its way to an overnight high of 0.8340. In what is shaping up as a quiet week as far as economic data is concerned any advancement in the New Zealand Dollar is likely to remain short lived as investors remain tentative towards purchasing currencies deemed to be riskier until any concrete action or reassurances are gained surrounding the ongoing Fiscal Problems of the Broader European Region.
We expect a range today of 0.8280 – 0.8395
Great British Pound: The Great British Pound opens around a half a cent higher against its US Counterpart this morning as US Retail Sales released on Friday eased investors concerns surrounding the strength of the world’s largest economy. With the Sterling trading to an overnight high of 1.6311, UK Stocks also advanced as global markets showed signs of relative normality. Looking ahead this week the focus is again going to be on Europe as global investors seek larger re-assurances that Economic Leaders are being as pro-active as possible to ensure the fiscal stability of the broader region. Meanwhile this morning the Sterling opens noticeably stronger against The Australian Dollar currently trading a rate of 1.5710, nearing the most favourable rate of exchange seen since April this year. The Pound is little-changed against the kiwi (1.9510)
We expect a range today of 1.5600 – 1.5800
Majors: The S&P 500 lost a staggering 1.7% last week, capping what proved to be of one the most volatile weeks ever witnessed throughout Global Equity Markets. With large swings and uncertainty prevailing currency markets also suffered as investors sold heavily assets deemed to be riskier in nature, helping prop up the Greenback as it opens slightly stronger against the US Currency this morning at a rate of 76.806.Despite Strong Retail Sales out of the US on Friday helping to calm markets, any speculation out of the EURO Zone that the Sovereign Debt-Crisis is spreading is likely to see the US Currency strengthen in the near term. Whilst on European News the EURO enjoyed one it’s most subdued sessions in weeks trading between a low of 1.4149 and high of 1.4290 against its US Counterpart on Friday. With German and French Leaders due meet tomorrow, the temporary ban on short-selling imposed by Spain, Belgium, Italy and France on Friday also achieved its goal of calming the waters following a drama packed week.
Data Releases
AUD: New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
NZD: No Data Today
JPY: Prelim GDP q/q. Prelim GDP Price Index y/y
GBP: Rightmove HPI m/m
EUR: French and Italian Bank Holiday
USD: Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC Long-Term Purchases