Daily Forex Forecast 07/27/2012
Australian Dollar
Following a heavy week of local data releases the Australian dollar rebounded in overnight trade racing to recover all of the week’s earlier losses. Gaining more than one full US Cent, the Aussie dollar has managed to trade as high as 1.0422 against its US Counterpart over the past 12 hours after starting the day clinging to the 1.03 handle. It was hopes of a lasting solution out of the Euro-zone which sparked the eventual rally in riskier backed assets after ECB President Mario Draghi made a statement committing to doing whatever it takes to preserve the Euro. Whatever was said investors liked what they heard as we open this morning noticeably higher at 1.0396.
We expect a range today of 1.0350 1.0440
New Zealand Dollar
Whilst The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to keep the official cash rate unchanged at 2.5 percent had a relatively muted influence on the underlying currency the New Zealand dollar came to life during the offshore session. Trading as high as 0.8029 against its US Counterpart, a surge in risk appetite was triggered after supportive comments from ECB President Mario Draghi that the Central Bank will do whatever it takes to ensure the survival of the 17-nation euro. Whilst support is likely to be tested around the 80 US Cents level today key data releases this evening in the form of advanced GDP out of the US will be closely watched. Meanwhile this morning the Kiwi opens stronger currently swapping hands at 0.8013.
We expect a range today of 0.7960 – 0.8040
Great British Pound:
In a monumental night for the Great British Pound the Sterling has posted its biggest gain against the Greenback since December 2010. After starting the day at 1.5495 investors jumped on the Sterling following supportive comments out of the ECB which sees us open close to two cents higher at 1.5682 this morning. Such moves are made even more extraordinary given data earlier in the week showed Britain’s economy shrank the most since the second quarter of 2009 as investors eagerly await any potential responses from the Bank of England when they meet next week. Meanwhile this morning keeping in mind riskier assets across the board benefitted from the ECB’s show of support the Sterling opens stronger against the Aussie (1.5078) however weaker against the Kiwi (1.9558).
We expect a range today of 1.5030 – 1.5120
Majors:
US Stocks returned to positive territory overnight snapping four days of losses as commodities and the Euro drove gains across global markets. Rallying by its biggest margin against the Greenback in almost a month the Euro after traded between a 24 hour range of (1.2116 -1.2328) as it opens this morning a staggering 120 basis points stronger at 1.2278. Acting as the main driving force behind the rally ECB President Mario Monti pledged his commitment to the 17-Nation pact stating he will do “whatever it takes to preserve the euro”. Suggesting Policy makers may look to intervene in bond markets as nations continue to suffer due to ballooning borrowing costs, overall the markets liked what they heard. Whilst Monti’s comments dominated headlines, it was a mixed bag out of the US overnight as a positive reading on weekly unemployment claims was offset by disappointing Pending Home Sales and Core Durable Goods Orders which both came in well below expectation. With the Greenback generally weaker against a handful of the majors all eyes will on advanced GDP figures which are due out of the US this evening with any further signs of weakening growth likely to spur calls for added stimulus in the form of QE3.
Data releases
AUD:
No Data Today
NZD: No Data Today
JPY:
Tokyo Core CPI y/y, Retail y/y
GBP: Nationwide HPI m/m
EUR:
Advance GDP q/q
USD:
Advance GDP q/q, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment