Daily Forex Forecast 08/18/2011
Australian Dollar:
The Australian Dollar lost ground yesterday trading to an intra-day low of 1.0432 against its US Counterpart after report showed the Nations Wage Price Index rose in line with expectation.
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With the Index rising 0.9 percent for the second quarter of this year adding to signs that the Australian Economy is heading for a patch of slightly weaker growth The Melbourne Institute Index designed to predict the direction of economic activity three to nine months into the future also came in at a mediocre 1.6 percent for the month of June.
Despite the slight sell-off during the domestic session The Australian Dollar was well purchased as the US Session kicked off. With broader financial markets having settled somewhat this week demand for riskier assets has again resumed driving the Aussie noticeably higher against the Greenback overnight as the Nation’s Currency opens this morning at a rate of 1.0536
We expect a range today of 1.0510 – 1.0615
New Zealand Dollar:
Despite a report released out of New Zealand yesterday which showed the prices for goods and services produced domestically rose by 1.4 percent, the New Zealand Dollar was sold throughout the Asian Session reaching a mid-session low of 0.8311 against its US Counterpart.
While concerns continue to linger surrounding the strength of the global economic recovery, riskier currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar are likely remain under pressure as the kiwi struggles to consolidate around the 84 US Cents Level.
At time of writing the New Zealand Dollar is currently swapping hands at a rate of 0.8364 and in the absence of any local data, risk appetite and the demand for the kiwi is likely to by largely influenced by the sentiment out of the broader European region
We expect a range today of 0.8320- 0.8440
Great British Pound:
Monetary Policy Committee Minutes released from the Bank of England’s most recent August Meeting were released overnight, showing policy makers voted unanimously to keep interest rates on hold.
In addition to the unanimous decision marking the first time since May 2010 without a vote to increase in further signs that economic growth is slowing UK’s Unemployment Rate unexpectedly increased to 7.9 percent against an expected reading of 7.7 percent.
Despite both announcements painting a bleak picture for the medium-term prospects of the British Economy the Sterling recovered well from an earlier sell off trading as high as 1.642 against its US Counterpart. This morning also see’s the Sterling open marginally higher against the Australian Dollar at a rate of 1.5690
We expect a range today of 1.5620 - 1.5740
Majors:
In overnight trade Global Stocks Fluctuated and after earlier gains the Dow Jones closed 0.1 percent in positive territory. While the US Federal Reserve has come under some recent scrutiny following their recent pledge to maintain near- zero interest rates until 2013 many economist continue to argue that such policy statements should not be used as a mechanism to calm fluctuating equity markets, as the timing of last weeks announcements continues to be questioned.
In further economic news last night US Producer Price Index figures beat expectation advancing a full 0.2 percent; however as markets appear to be normalizing the overall effect on the Greenback has been minimal as it opens slightly lower against the Japanese Yen this morning at a rate of 76.570.
European Stocks also advanced slightly overnight with the EURO trading between a low of 1.4323 and high of 1.4516 against its US Counterpart. Moving forward the EURO remains susceptible to further downside with France and Germany meeting this week in efforts to counter the Euro Debt Crisis and insure the fiscal stability of the broader region, the EURO opens slightly higher this morning at a rate of 1.4424
Data releases
AUD: No Data Today
NZD: No Data Today
JPY: Trade Balance
GBP: Retail Sales m/m
EUR: No Data Today
USD: Core CPI m/m, Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, CB Leading Index m/m
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