Daily Forex Forecast 08/19/2011
Australian Dollar:
The Australian Dollar drifted lower yesterday falling from a two-week high against its US Counterpart. As Asian Markets remained soft, equities, oil and copper also drifted lower dampening demand for the commodities based Currency.
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Following on from a relatively subdued beginning the Australian Dollar was sold heavily in overnight trade reaching an eventual low of 1.0351 against its US Counterpart.
As the market looks ahead to a relatively thin domestic Economic Calender, investors still appear wary of underlying volatility as higher yielding currencies such as the Australian Dollar remain at the mercy of global swings in risk appetite. Meanwhile this morning the Australian Dollar opens a full cent and a half lower against the Greenback at a rate of 1.0385 after heavy loses in European and US Equity Markets.
We expect a range today of 1.0310 -1.0440
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand Dollar fell from its highest level in more than a week against the US Currency yesterday, halting from 5 days of previous gains.
With soft results coming out of Asian Markets in Local trade yesterday the New Zealand Dollar was sold to an intra-day low of 0.8311 against its US Counterpart as a lack of demand for the Kiwi seeing it struggle to push past the psychological 84 US Cents level in the near-term.
With a wide range of poor economic results out of the US overnight and global Equity markets reporting drops in excess of 4 percent the Kiwi was sold heavily throughout the US Session reaching an eventual low of 0.8194. This morning the New Zealand Dollar opens significantly lower at a rate of 0.8211 as the kiwi remains at the mercy of ongoing global growth concerns and general risk appetite
We expect a range today of 0.8170 – 0.8280
Great British Pound:
UK Stocks fell yesterday the most since March 2009 as talks of a slow down in global growth and a loss of trust in Policy Makers continue to fuel Global Volatilities.
The Wall Street Journal Reported overnight that US Regulators are set to increase their scrutiny of Europe’s largest lenders adding to ongoing concerns that not enough is being done to contain European Sovereign Debt Concerns.
Amid the turmoil witnessed throughout Equity Markets, UK Retail Sales also came in below expectation showing an increase of 0.2 percent for the month of July.
Meanwhile throughout Currency Markets yesterday the Sterling has done very well to consolidate recent gains and after falling to an overnight low of 1.6419 has rebounded well to open higher this morning at a rate of 1.6505 against its US Counterpart, higher also against the Australian Dollar at a rate of 1.5902
We expect a range today of 1.5840 – 1.5950
Majors:
The S&P 500 plunged overnight losing a massive 4.5 percent as Global Growth Concerns continue to wreak havoc on equity markets around the Globe. In what proved to be a volatile evening there was a of fundamental shift away from riskier assets as investors moved back into safe-haven holding with Gold rallying 2.1 percent and the Greenback strengthening against 15 of its 16 major counterparties.
In a string of poor economic readings released overnight Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims as well the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index all came in below expectation, compounding the woes of the Global growth story. Meanwhile this morning the EURO opens a full cent lower against its US Counterpart at a rate of 1.4328 having traded as low as at 1.4270 in overnight trade.
With a massive exodus away from equity markets and heightened concerns surrounding the competency of policy makers, the EURO remains susceptible to further downside in the coming months as weakened confidence has also lead Morgan Stanley to cuts its Global Growth Forecast from 4.2 to 3.9 percent in report released overnight.
Data releases
AUD: No Data Today
NZD: Visitor Arrivals m/m
JPY: All Industries Activity m/m
GBP: Public Sector Borrowing
EUR: German PPI m/m
USD: FOMC Member Dudley Speaks