Daily Forex Forecast 08/30/2011
Australian Dollar: There was plenty of support for the Aussie at 1.0550 during the Asian session on Monday as risk sentiment continued to improve. The unit climbed steadily to an intraday high of 1.0625 after strong leads from local and offshore equity markets.
[Kick off your trading day with our newsletter]
The Aussie last traded above US106 cents on August 4 before dipping briefly below parity a few days later. During the offshore session, the Aussie moved between 1.0604 and 1.0670 as traders continued to buy riskier assets. Provided there are no major surprises in today building approvals data, the Aussie looks supported at current levels
We expect a range today of 1.0620 to 1.0720
New Zealand Dollar: The kiwi continued its recent rally during Monday’s Asian session hitting a high 0.8444, breaking through a resistance level which has been all but impenetrable over the last three weeks.
Positive sentiment stemming from last Friday’s comments by US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke provided the currency with plenty of buyers around the 0.8380 level.
Stronger equity markets in the region also provided support and bolstered general risk sentiment. During the offshore session, the kiwi traded between 0.8439 and 0.8469. Meanwhile, on the cross rates, the kiwi opens almost unchanged against the Australian Dollar at 0.7934.
We expect a range today of 0.8400 to 0.8500
Great British Pound: Despite greenback weakness across the board overnight as investors dipped their toes back into riskier waters, Pound Sterling failed to hang onto its gains above 1.6400. Against its US counterpart, Sterling rallied to an overnight high of 1.6453 however the rally was short-lived after a report by property researcher Hometrack revealed UK house prices fell for a fourth month in August.
Weak consumer demand and a stuttering economy are likely to force the Bank of England to keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low, which adds pressure to the currency. Meanwhile, The pound opens marginally lower against both the Australian Dollar (1.5390) and the New Zealand Dollar (1.9400).
We expect a range today of 1.5250 to 1.5450
Majors: The Euro rose to a one-month high of 1.4548 amid renewed risk sentiment, managing to hold onto most of its overnight gains to open in Sydney at 1.4505. Merger news in Greece between their second and third-largest banks sent stocks soaring in the Euro zone.
The mood was just as positive across the Atlantic and when news emerged that damage from Hurricane Irene was not as bad as initially feared, the Dow Jones Industrial average also added 2.3 per cent as insurance and bank stocks rose sharply. An unexpected lift in US consumer spending in July also added fuel to the risk rally.
The index rose 0.8 per cent representing the largest monthly gain since February. As demand for safe havens diminished overnight, spot gold, the Swiss Franc and the Greenback were the biggest losers. The US Dollar opens lower against the Japanese Yen today at 76.70.
Data releases
AUD: Building Approvals m/m
NZD: Building Consents m/m
JPY: Unemployment Rate; Retail Sales; Household Spending
GBP: Mortgage Approvals
EUR: Italian Retail Sales
USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes; CB Consumer Confidence