Daily Forex Forecast 09/21/2011
Australian Dollar: The Aussie jumped to an intraday high of 1.0240 following the release yesterday of the Reserve Bank’s September board meeting minutes which revealed a wait-and-see approach and investors trim their expectations of a cut on October 4. Uppermost in the minds of both investors and RBA board members is continued uncertainty over European sovereign debt and its impact on global economic growth.
Traders sold the Aussie on yesterday’s rally pushing the unit back down to 1.0150. The recent volatility shows no sign of abating and during the offshore session, the currency moved towards US103 cents ahead of this morning’s opening level of 1.0250.
We expect a range today of 1.0180 – 1.0300
New Zealand Dollar: Global economic uncertainty continues to suck the life out of the kiwi keeping it pinned beneath 0.8220 during most of Tuesday’s domestic session. The currency hit an intraday low of 0.8160. Whilst recent movements have been largely sentiment driven, the focus will shift to local events tomorrow with the release of second quarter gross domestic product with most economists tipping growth to have slowed.
Also making it difficult for the kiwi to sustain any rallies is the widely-held view that local interest rates are likely to remain at 2.50 per cent. Against the greenback, the unit opens today at 0.8230. Meanwhile, on the cross rates, the kiwi has managed to hang onto its recent gains above 0.8000 opening today at 0.8010.
We expect a range today of 0.8160 – 0.8260
Great Britain Pound: Like several other major currencies overnight, the pound endured another volatile session gyrating between resistance at 1.5730 and a near-calendar-year low of 1.5632. Sterling opens today at 1.5720, hanging onto most of the gains made in offshore trade on Tuesday.
Temporary support for the currency emerged as UK stocks climbed for a fifth day in six amid speculation the US Federal Reserve will provide more stimulus measures to boost its ailing economy. Meanwhile, the pound opens steady against both the Australian Dollar (1.5323) and the New Zealand Dollar (1.9110).
We expect a range today of 1.5280 – 1.5380
Majors: The Euro opens little-changed from this time yesterday against the greenback at 1.3690. Technical support for the 17-nation currency lies around the 1.3600. This month’s German investor confidence fell to its lowest level in more than 2 ½ years as the debt crisis and the global economic slowdown continue to take its toll. The ZEW centre for European Economic Research of investor expectations declined to minus 43.3 in September from -37.6 the previous month. Also keeping a lid on risk appetite was a revised forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Global growth estimates have been cut and it predicted “severe” repercussions if Europe fails to contain its debt crisis. The European Central Bank may need to lower its benchmark interest rate from 1.5 per cent if risks to growth persist. Meanwhile, the big dollar opens steady against the Japanese Yen (76.42) as investors await the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting amid speculation of further stimulus measures to help revive the world’s largest economy.
Data releases
AUD: Westpac leading index, July
NZD: Credit card spending, August
JPY: Merchandise trade balance, August
GBP: Bank of England minutes
EUR: No data today
USD: Existing home sales, August