Daily Forex Forecast 09/24/2012
Australian Dollar
Following a week in which the Australian dollar retreated from a five month high of 1.0625 against its US Counterpart, Friday’s session was an overall positive one for the higher yielding asset. Still finding ground above the 1.05 mark a little slippery Aussie highs of 1.0518 were relatively short-lived with investors making a clear move away from riskier backed assets amidst ongoing squabbling throughout Europe which has seen debate again erupt over the weekend between the French and Germans in regards to the potential timing of joint oversight of the regions banking sector. Keeping in mind Greece’s inability to meet austerity measures and the added likelihood Spain will soon be putting their hand up for aid and its likely attention will remain firmly in Europe over the medium term. Meanwhile this morning the Aussie Dollar opens at a very similar level to where we left it Friday currently swapping hands at a rate of 1.0452 against the Greenback.
We expect a range today of 1.0420 – 1.0480
New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand remained within its recent ranges for much of Friday’s session following a week of overall consolidation. Trading briefly to highs around the 0.8335 mark against its US Counterpart some positive news was found after the Chinese government announced measures to boost exports whilst also warning of slower than expected GDP moving ahead. Ignoring the later, global growth, or the lack there of is again likely to come into focus this week following weeks of Central Bank activity which has seen asset classes similar to the New Zealand Dollar benefit greatly by the added liquidity which has now been thrown at markets. Opening this morning relatively unchanged the New Zealand dollar currently buys 82.81 US Cents.
We expect a range today of 0.8240 – 0.8310
Great British Pound:
In figures released on Friday Britain posted its biggest budget deficit on record as the recession hit tax revenue whilst also pushing up spending on welfare. Highlighting the damage as a result of weaker than expected growth and output the pressure is now firmly on the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne to either abandon plans to bring down debt levels or alternatively increase austerity measures. Advancing against its US Counterpart on Friday the Great British Pound opens stronger this morning at 1.6227 after reaching earlier highs of 1.6309. Meanwhile on the cross rates the Sterling opens stronger against both the Aussie (1.5521) and the Kiwi (1.9589).
We expect a range today of 1.5480 – 1.5570
Majors:
Markets stopped to catch their breath on Friday following a week in which the BOJ unexpectedly added more stimulus, Chinese manufacturing slipped to an 11-month low whilst Euro-area manufacturing and Services all pointed towards a drop in output. Whilst more people in the US filled for unemployment claims all of these results only point towards one thing, slower growth. Given the general feeling of caution which has now blanketed the market, speculation that Spain may be working on a request to receive financial aid from other European nations it’s likely to remain at the forefront of investors mind over the coming days. Whist a pro-active Spain is seen as a positive by the majority, the Euro has appeared generally weighed down close the 1.30 mark against is US Counterpart of late, running out of steam at 1.3047 on Friday. Meanwhile on the outlook today markets are expected to remain generally flat with an Index of German Business confidence the only data release due of any real importance.
Data releases
AUD:
No Data Today
NZD: No Data Today
JPY:
Monetary Policy Minutes
GBP: No Data Today
EUR:
German Ifo Business Confidence
USD:
No Data Today