Daily Forex Forecast 10/02/2011
Australian Dollar:
The Australian Dollar fell for a third consecutive day yesterday, the longest losing streak against its US Counterpart in six weeks. The Australian Dollar’s initial drop was triggered by poor manufacturing figures released out of China, with a further sell off in the afternoon a direct result of the Reserve Bank of Australia decision to cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 percent. Sending Australia’s currency tumbling to a 24-hour low of 1.0270, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said inflation is close to the Centrals banks target range, adding to the prospects of future rate cuts in coming months. This morning we see the Australian Dollar open a staggering 2 Cents lower currently trading at a rate of 1.0341, following another bout of risk-aversion on concern Europe’s debt plan will unravel
We expect a range today of 1.0250 – 1.0420
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand Dollar opens noticeably lower against its US Counterpart this morning currently trading at a rate of 0.7954. After initially trading as high as 0.8105 around midday yesterday, the Kiwi was sold across the board late in the domestic session and into US Hours. Triggering losses overnight was news that Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will take the Euro Zones latest bailout package to Referendum making investors a lot more uncertain that the Nation will be able to successfully avoid default. Looking ahead today, further upside is likely to remain limited with local equities taking negative leads from offshore, local Unemployment figures expected for release tomorrow remain the only domestic data likely to have any major influence on the currencies short-term direction.
We expect a range today of 0.7890 – 0.8030
Great British Pound
UK Stocks experienced their biggest three day drop since September yesterday with the benchmark FTSE 100 Index Tumbling 2.2 percent. Following the equity market lower was the Great British Pound which traded to a 24 hour low of 1.5889 against its US Counterpart as it opens noticeably lower this morning at a rate of 1.5958. Well and truly denting the optimism and Euphoria created throughout Europe last week Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou announced plans to put the new bailout package to a referendum of the Greek people, sending markets into a spin and amplifying the very real chance of default should voters reject the financial accord. In unrelated news Chinese manufacturing declined to its lowest level since February 2009 as the Sterling opens noticeably stronger this morning against both the Australian Dollar (1.5421) and the New Dollar (2.0045)
We expect a range today of 1.5310 – 1.5520
Majors:
Spot Gold prices advanced, US Treasuries gained and the US Dollar also finished stronger yesterday amid concerns Europe’s Bailout package will unravel. In what proved to be a session of safe-haven trades global equity markets also took a large hit with the S&P 500 finishing 2.4 percent lower. As has been the driving influence over the weeks just passed it was again news out of Greece which triggered losses as Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s grip on power weakened following his announcement to take the Euro Zone’s most recent bailout package to referendum. Following the announcement the EURO was immediately sold across the board and after trading to an eventual low of 1.3607 against its US Counterpart it opens a full cent and a half lower this morning at a rate of 1.3706. On the EURO front, volatilities are expected to continue in the coming weeks as the ultimate danger in a referendum lies within the fact it could be defeated with Greece potentially back to square one and facing the distinct possibility of default. Meanwhile in the US overnight the Greenback rallied against the Japanese Yen, opening stronger this morning at a rate of 78.325 with all eyes on the Open Market Committee due meet this evening.
Data releases
AUD: Building Approvals m/m,
NZD: No Data Today
JPY: Monetary Policy Base y/y
GBP: Construction PMI
EUR: German Unemployment Change, Final Manufacturing PMI
USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Press Conference