Daily Forex Forecast 10/31/2011
Australian Dollar: Nothing is ever a "straight line higher" and the Aussie succumbed to this theory during trade on Friday after a 3-cent rally the previous session. The Aussie opens the new week at 1.0685 and has managed to hang onto most of the gains made during last week’s relief rally after European Union leaders agreed to a deal to solve the Euro zone debt crisis. However, traders have paused for breath after the biggest rally in the Aussie in almost 2 years which saw the unit hit a 2-month high above US107 cents. Also keeping a lid on things at the moment is tomorrow's RBA meeting with some economists tipping a cut in official interest rates. The Aussie also remains strong against the Euro (0.7560) and New Zealand Dollar (1.2990).
We expect a range today of 1.0640 to 1.0725
New Zealand Dollar: The kiwi hit a 5-week high of 0.8240 during trade last Friday before profit-takers pounced taking the unit down to an intraday low of 0.8175 against its US counterpart. Earlier, the kiwi surged US2 cents after European Union leaders agreed to a deal to solve the Euro zone debt crisis. The currency opens at 0.8212 and may run out of steam around this level for the time being given the speed and force of what can only be described as a "relief rally". The kiwi continues to be outperformed by its trans-Tasman rival, opening at 0.7690 today after hitting a low overnight of 0.7640.
We expect a range today of 0.8140 to 0.8225
Great British Pound: The euphoria displayed by markets late last week in light of the EU deal to solve the Euro zone debt crisis dimmed somewhat during trade on Friday taking Pound Sterling higher against both the Euro (0.8760) and the greenback (1.6100). The Euro weakened slightly after Italys borrowing costs rose at a debt sale. Sterling has gained on the greenback for the third consecutive week mainly on recent developments out of Europe rather than any underlying improvement in the domestic economy. Consumer confidence remains at a 2-year low as Britons become more pessimistic about spending. Meanwhile, the pound opens largely unchanged against both the Australian Dollar (1.5040) and the New Zealand Dollar (1.9625).
We expect a range today of 1.5010 to 1.5110
Majors: The Euro advanced for a third consecutive week against the greenback and opens the new week at 1.4130. The 17-nation currency moved above the 1.4000 level for the first time in almost 2 months after European Union leaders agreed to a deal to solve the Euro zone debt crisis. During trade on Friday however, the Euro moved to a low of 1.4110 after Italys borrowing costs rose at a debt sale. Weighing on the greenback near-term is this weeks Federal Open Market Committee meeting where discussion may include consideration for a third round of quantitative easing. Whilst recent economic data in the United States is showing some signs of heading in a more positive direction, unemployment remains stubbornly high. Meanwhile, the greenback opens lower against the Japanese Yen at 75.50.
Data releases
AUD: Private sector credit, Sept
NZD: No data today
JPY: Housing starts, Sept
GBP: Mortgage approvals, Sept
EUR: Euro zone unemployment rate, Sept
USD: No data today