Daily Forex Forecast 11/02/2012
Australian Dollar
Chinese manufacturing figures passed us by yesterday with the net effect being nil. Despite the reading of 50.2 surpassing the majority of estimates the improved figure was simply seen as a confirmation that economic growth has stabilised not rebounded. In line with China’s change in Policy where annualised growth of 10 percent is now seen as a thing of the past more accommodative monetary policy is expected in the foreseeable future. Moving to overnight highs of 1.0410 against its US Counterpart improved labour market results from the world’s largest economy have added to hopes that the underlying unemployment rate will drop when figures are released later tonight. Meanwhile this morning in what has been a very positive day for the higher yielding asset the Australian dollar opens half a US cent stronger clinging to the 1.04 level
We expect a range today of 1.0370 – 1.0420
New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand dollar was in high demand yesterday as improved Chinese manufacturing data as well as Job and manufacturing figures in the US both beat estimates. Fuelling optimism that the global economy may be on better growth path than many had anticipated the Kiwi has firmed consistently over much of the past 24 highs reaching highs of 0.8279 against its US Counterpart. Bolding well for the highly anticipated release of US non-farm payrolls this evening the US election which is due to commence Nov.6 is also likely provide a choppy road for the growth-linked asset. Opening this morning at a rate of 0.8268 continued improvements in economic numbers should provide an ongoing boost to risk-appetite as markets are only now returning to full capacity following the havoc caused by Hurricane Sandy
We expect a range today of 0.8230 – 0.8290
Great British Pound:
Triggering a move away from the Great British Pound yesterday the downturn in Britain’s manufacturing sector continued in October reviving concerns about just how fragile the economy remains. Given manufacturing PMI disappointed with a reading of 47.5 well below the 50 reading required to demonstrate an expansion the Sterling fell to lows of 1.6120 against its US Counterpart. Whilst opening levels aren’t too far from where we left it yesterday at 1.6123 the same cannot be said for its performance against the Aussie (1.5496) and Kiwi (1.9497) as the Sterling tumbled against both.
We expect a range today of 1.5470 – 1.5530
Majors:
Cooling concerns about a deceleration in growth, global stocks rallied overnight following the release of several strong pieces of economic data. In signs that the US labour market is slowly finding its feet US companies added jobs in October at the fastest pace in eight months as private employers added 158 000 workers. Whilst weekly unemployment claims fell by 9000 in the week ended Oct. 27 all eyes will now be on the US unemployment rate which is expected to remain sticky this evening at 7.9 percent. Given US elections next week which also remain a key risk event for markets the seasonal pickup in numbers has been further demonstrated through expansionary manufacturing readings in both China the US. With the influx of positive energy overnight risk appetite favoured a move away from the Greenback as well as the Euro. Falling to lows of 1.2925 against the Greenback lower opening levels today of 1.2942 can be put down to ongoing squabbles throughout Greece as governments and lawmakers continue to argue over austerity measures needed to ensure they receive the required flow of austerity funding.
Data release:
AUD:
PPI q/q
NZD: ANZ Commodity prices
JPY:
Monetary Policy Meeting minutes
GBP: Construction PMI
EUR:
Spanish Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI
USD:
Non-Farm Employment change, Unemployment Rate, Factory Orders m/m, FOMC Member Williams Speaks