Daily Forex Forecast 12/22/2011
Australian Dollar
The Australian Dollar swang between gains and losses yesterday in what can only be described as a choppy day of trading. With little in the form of local data yesterday the early signs for the Australian Dollar were positive with investors snapping up the higher yielding currency driving it to fresh highs just above the 1.02 Level. Having recorded consistent gains throughout the domestic session the rally appeared short-lived however amid concerns that liquidity measures announced by the European Central Bank for its regions banks may not be sufficient to stem the ongoing sovereign debt crisis.
Overall in what started as a risk-on day ended in a significant shift away from riskier currencies. Meanwhile this morning the Australian Dollar opens at a very similar level to what was seen yesterday currently trading at a rate of 1.0074 against its US Counterpart
We expect a range today of 1.0010 - 1.0150
New Zealand Dollar
New Zealand’s current-account deficit widened yesterday to 4.3 percent of GDP for the year ended Sept.30, recording a wider gap than the anticipated 3.9 percent. Despite the deficit being driven by falling export prices the New Zealand Dollar continued it’s appreciation for much of yesterday’s session. Driving demand for the Kiwi Dollar, risk sentiment turned positive throughout the Asian session driving the Currency to a late afternoon high of 0.7774 against its US Counterpart. As the Unit entered the offshore session however all previous gains were lost with renewed concerns surfacing that efforts by the ECB to improve the liquidity of the regions banks are likely to fall short of what is required. Whilst the Kiwi has remained range bound between (0.7650 – 0.7774) in the past 24 hours, volatile times are expected to continue this morning with Gross Domestic Product figures due for release at time of writing. This morning sees the Kiwi open unchanged currently buying 76.78 US Cents
We expect a range today of 0.7620 – 0.7730
Great British Pound
In Monetary Policy Committee Minutes released yesterday Policy Makers voted unanimously to keep bond purchases unchanged whilst signalling further stimulus might be needed next year given the risks associated with Europe’s ongoing debt crisis. Following the release, in what was a volatile session for the Great British Pound, the Sterling traded as high as 1.5773 against its US Counterpart. Such moves forward were short-lived however as concern again surfaced that the recent funding program announced by the ECB for the Regions struggling banks will fall short of providing any lasting solution to the ongoing debt crisis. With Currency markets seemingly at the mercy of any bad news out Europe the Sterling opens marginally higher against the Australian and New Zealand Dollar at a rate of (1.5558) and (2.0405) respectively.
We expect a range today of 1.5480 – 1.5670
Majors
US Stocks Fell, Treasuries rose whilst the EURO lost ground yesterday in what proved to be a session of large swings. Global equities originally rallied yesterday, however as has been the case over the course of previous months it was news out of Europe which saw earlier gains turn to losses. Triggering the sell-off overnight the ECB announced plans to loan 489 billion worth of EURO’s to the regions struggling banks, in an effort to improve liquidity and functionality. Whilst the size of such loans came in well above the median forecasted figure of 293 billion Euros, it has done little to temper fears that the debt crisis is yet to worsen, with many arguing that such actions have done little to solve the underlying problem. In further releases overnight Euro-Region Consumer confidence fell to more than a 2-year which saw the EURO fall from an earlier high of 1.3198 against its US Counterpart to open this morning half of one cent lower at a rate of 1.3042. Benefitting from the shift in risk-sentiment yesterday the Greenback finished stronger against a handful of major currencies including the Japanese Yen, hitting fresh highs above the critical 78.00 level overnight. In a Monetary Policy Statement released the Bank of Japan maintained their previous stance, as expected providing no further stimulus.
Data releases
AUD:
No data today
NZD: GDP q/q
JPY:
BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks, BOJ monthly Report
GBP: Current Account, Final GDP q/q, Revised Business Investment q/q
EUR:
Italian Retail Sales m/m
USD:
Unemployment Claims, Final GDP q/q, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, CB Leading Index m/m, OFHEO HPI m/m,