Daily Forex Forecast 25/03/2011
Australian Dollar: With little in the way of local data yesterday the Australian Dollar moved sideways against the Greenback during the Asian session with the pair limited to 30 pip range.
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In the offshore session however it was a different story with the Aussie rallying hard to eventually hit an overnight high of 1.0226 as prices in commodities surged to record levels once again.
The focus for the remainder of the day will be the unfolding events in Europe, more specifically Portugal and its ability to service its national debt and the potential intervention by the EU and IMF. This combined with the 2 day EU Summit, should make for an interesting day ahead.
We expect a range today of 1.0150 to 1.0250
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar opens higher today despite yesterday's data revealing Gross Domestic Product grew 0.2 per cent in the final quarter of 2010.
Investor fears of a double-dip recession eased upon release of the data as annual GDP grew 1.5 per cent and manufacturing bounced back.
Over the last 24-hours, the Kiwi hit a high of 0.7520 mainly on the back of firmer commodity prices and base metals. Gold remains near all-time highs and is currently trading at US$1,427.80/oz.
Meanwhile, the Kiwi has lost a little bit of ground on its trans-Tasman rival with the cross rate opening today 0.7335 (1.3632)
We expect a range today of 0.7440 to 0.7540
Great British Pound: The Pound is still being weighed down by yesterdays release of the Bank of England's minutes and comments from Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne is which he stated that the UK would grow more slowly in 2011 than originally forecast.
Against the US dollar the pair traded between 1.6090 and 1.6234 in the offshore session. Adding to the Pounds intraday movements was the release of Retail Sales for the month of February with the figures coming better worse than expected at -0.8% (previous reading of 1.5%) indicating that the UK consumer is still reluctant about spending their hard earned cash.
Against the Australian and New Zealand Dollar, the Pound Sterling is changing hands at 1.5760 and 2.1505 respectively.
We expect a range today of 1.5650 to 1.5850
Majors: The market's attention has shifted somewhat from the catastrophic events in Japan 2 weeks ago to Europe, as the issue of sovereign debt rears its ugly yet again. Overnight we had the Portuguese Prime Minster resign after parliament rejected proposed austerity measures, with the probable implications that Portugal will now require monetary assistance from the EU and IMF. Despite this however the EURO rallied against the US Dollar for the first time in 3 days posting a high of 1.4219 as the probability of higher interest rates in Euro Land outweighed the fiscal chaos in Portugal. The EU Summit also started yesterday with any comments out of the 2 day event being closely watched by markets participants. Meanwhile against the Japanese Yen, the Greenback is up slightly and at time of writing is changing hands at 80.95.
Data releases
AUD: No data scheduled for release
NZD: RBNZ Governor Bollard speaks
JPY: CSPI y/y
GBP: No data scheduled for release
EUR: GfK Consumer and Ifo Business climate; EU Economic Summit
USD: Final GDP; FOMC Plosser, Fisher & Kocherlakota speak; Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations
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