Daily Forex Forecast 7/12/2011
Australian Dollar: Risk aversion is once again grappling the markets and as investors get nervy demand for the Australian Dollar dwindles. Fears that Italy may be the next victim of Europe's debt crisis has sent the Aussie tumbling, losing almost a cent since the opening of markets.
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Yesterday's home loan figures showed a smaller than expected 4.4% increase in the last month, and although the markets took little notice of the figures, they did little to help. Falling to lows of 1.0680 during the Asian session, this support was broken offshore and the Australian Dollar continued its slide to test 1.0630. Opening this morning at 1.0650, the economic docket holds NAB business confidence figures and looking offshore the Bank of Japan interest rate decision may provide some intraday volatility for the local session.
We expect a range today of 1.0600 - 1.0710
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar has remained under pressure since this week's open as continuing concern for Europe dampens risk appetite. Falling victim to offshore events, the Kiwi fell from session highs yesterday of 0.8355 to break support levels and tumble through the 83 cent handle to lows of 0.8275.
In the absence of any local data it is likely to remain suppressed in the short-term as the European debt crisis continues to dominate the headlines. Later this week we have the REINZ house price index and well as the all important quarterly GDP figures, either one could potentially lend the Kiwi some much needed domestic support. Across the Tasman, the Australian dollar is too struggling with the current risk environment and as such the pair has experienced little movement so far this week. Opening today at 1.2840 (0.7788) the Aussie/Kiwi cross waits for something closer to home in order to forge direction.
We expect a range today of 0.8250 - 0.8330
Great British Pound: Higher demand for the safety of the Greenback as well as its own economic perils has sent the UK's Pound to its lowest levels since January against the US Dollar. Momentarily falling below 1.5900, Sterling found support just above 1.5880 after an anti-risk rally pushed many riskier currencies lower. Local economic data has failed to provide much needed support as a British Chamber of Commerce survey showed the UK's recovery is fragile and GDP likely grew a measly 0.3% in the second quarter of this year. Later this evening scheduled for release is the Trade Balance and all important CPI figures; a positive number may just give Sterling a brief lift however unless the BOE is willing to act on the information in the near term, the gains are likely to be short-lived. Relatively unchanged against the Australian and New Zealand Dollars we open this morning at 1.4930 and 1.9180 respectively.
We expect a range today of 1.4880 - 1.5010
Majors: The Euro has tumbled to seven week lows against the Greenback on concerns Italy may be the next country to slide into the spotlight surrounding the Eurozone's debt crisis. Such a large economy falling victim to the contagion has spooked investors and the area's shared currency fell to 1.3990 against the US Dollar and 112.35 against the Japanese Yen. After sliding more than 12 percent this past year, the Greenback may just be looking into a reverse of fortunes as a deepening debt crisis continues to push investors back into safe-haven assets. The dollar rose against the majority of its major counterparts, and in true risk-off fashion, stocks and commodities slumped. We open today with the Euro buying 1.4030 against the Greenback and the Greenback buying 80.20 against the Japanese Yen. Moving away from the concerns of Europe, we have the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision today, where they are expected to keep rates on hold at virtually zero as the economy continues to recover from March's devastating earthquake. What the markets will be watching closely is the central banks outlook for the second half of 2011 and its evaluation of the health of the economy going forward.
Data releases
AUD: NAB Business Confidence
NZD: No data due for release
JPY: Overnight Call Rate; Monetary Policy Statement; Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
GBP: BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y; CPI y/y; Trade Balance
EUR: French CPI m/m; German Final CPI m/m
USD: Trade Balance; FOMC Meeting Minutes
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