Ebola Could Be Eliminated In Liberia By June

Ebola can be eliminated from Liberia as early as June if 85 percent of those infected are hospitalised, according to a new analysis.

The current level of vigilance will have to be maintained and medical workers need to keep pushing forward, an author of the analysis, John Drake, a computational ecologist and epidemiologist at the University of Georgia's Odom School of Ecology, said.

Not only should the current level of work be maintained, it is also essential that nothing unusual happens because there is no way to predict how the system would cope in case something unexpected takes place.

It is essential that all cases of the virus are identified and treated or there is a fear that the disease might become endemic to West Africa. The ebola virus grows and spreads at a low rate and could flare up at any time. Once all the identified cases of the illness are eliminated, the effort has to keep the occurrence of the disease at zero, for which strict monitoring and surveillance are required.

Ebola has made more than 21,171 sick and killed 8,371 in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

Cases in Liberia have declined recently and schools are to reopen after they were shut down in July as the country struggled to cope with the highly infectious and deadly disease.

While previous analyses of the situation have focused largely on the virus itself, how fast it reproduces, the new analysis studies burial practices, patients' attempts to avoid detection and similar variables related to human behaviour in areas where Ebola is common.

Ebola spreads through exposure to bodily fluids. The authors of the study concluded that in the most likely scenario, Ebola would rapidly decline in the first half of 2015 and would be followed by a long tail of fewer cases.

Ebola treatment is currently hampered by victims hiding away from authorities.

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