The Forex Market Insight Report shows charts on different major currencies and commodities, with brief commentaries on how new data releases and news cause movements in the market.

Headline:

  • Quiet night of trading as US closed for Independence Day
  • EUR eases slightly after strong week
  • AUD holds steady after yesterday’s disappointing data, rate decision today
  • Gold and oil creep higher in low volume trading
  • Dow closed, but London, Toronto higher
  • Today’s highlights include AUD rate decision, GBP services PMI and US factory orders

AUD/USD
The Aussie eased back yesterday after a disappointing result from retail sales. Today, all eyes are on the RBA decision at 2.30pm. The market expects no change, but the statement will be closely watched for any indication that the RBA has become less concerned about inflation.

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XAU/USD
Gold has moved right back to the top of the range at 1500 and traders will now be looking to build new short positions. Gold has the potential to move back to 1480, but a clear break of 1510 voids this view.

EUR/USD
The Euro has come back to test support at 1.4530 and the market is likely to view this move as an opportunity to take new longs. From here, the Euro has the potential to push back up to the one-month highs at 1.4680.

GBP/USD
The pound tried to rally above 1.6100 overnight but the fact the British currency was unable to hold these levels is bearish for the GBP/USD. From here, the expectation is that the pound will move back lower to retest support at 1.5920.

USD/JPY
There’s been no change on the dollar-yen with the pair continuing to grind higher as we enter the new trading week. For now, a break of 81.25 is needed to mark a clear bullish phase, but any move back to 80.60 is also likely to be bought by traders.

SILVER
We’re in a tricky position in silver, with the precious metal clearly bearish, but now back at support. From here, there is an expectation that silver should come back to test the top of the triangle pattern, but with gold also looking bearish, many traders will be waiting for the next shorting opportunity to present itself.

USD/CHF
The USD/CHF remains at the top end of the trading range and traders will be looking to participate in the next move lower. Tthe downside, targets are seen back at 83.30.

GBP/JPY
The GBP/JPY is still capped under 130.00, but the pair is increasingly looking lie it is trying to break higher. For the meantime, markets will be looking to stay short under 130.00, but any clear break higher will change the market’s view to bullish.

AUD/JPY
The Aussie-yen remains in the control of the bulls and any pullback to support will be seen as a buying opportunity. Don’t forget the RBA decision at 2.30pm will be of crucial importance, but any negative reaction is likely to find buyers around 86.00.

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OIL
With the US closed, we saw little action overnight, and oil remains trapped in the range. In the near term, traders are likely to play the range, with support seen at 94.00 and resistance seen at 95.80.

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