Forex Market Insight 06/22/2011
The Forex Market Insight Report shows charts on different major currencies and commodities, with brief commentaries on how new data releases and news cause movements in the market.
Headline:
- Risk instruments rally overnight as Greece passes confidence vote
- EUR improves ahead of vote, but pares back gains on announcement
- Aussie bounces back from yesterday’s RBA minutes to trade near 1.0600
- Commodities post strong gains on improving risk appetite; oil and gold both higher
- US equities surge, with Nasdaq the leader. Dow up 0.9%, while Nasdaq jumps 2.1%
- Looking forward, BoE minutes at 6.30pm, US Fed’s rate decision at 2.15am
AUD/USD
The Aussie remains trapped in the range with even yesterday’s dovish RBA minutes proving little impetus for the market to break out of its trading bracket. While, on balance, the market’s view is bullish, resistance continues to be seen at 1.0640/80 and there is likely to be little reason for markets to push significantly higher ahead of tonight’s FOMC meeting.
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XAU/USD
We can expect a choppy night ahead with the US Fed’s rate decision due at 2.15am Thursday morning. In the very near term, the precious metal is forming a bearish wedge pattern and therefore we could see gold heading back to the lower endvof the range at 1530. Traders will be looking to play the range, buying at support and selling at resistance.
EUR/USD
The Euro was pushed higher in the lead-up to the Greek’s government’s confidence vote, but since the government was given parliamentary approval, we’ve seen the EUR pare back gains. Overall, however, the EUR is looking more positive after breaking into a short-term uptrend and the move back to support at 1.4320/60 is likely to be seen as a buying opportunity.
GBP/USD
The GBPUSD still looks under pressure with resistance at 1.6250/300 clearly putting a cap on prices. Traders will be looking to take shorts on any move to 1.6250 or 1.6300. Targets for a down move are all the way back to 1.6100. Don’t forget the BoE minutes are out at 6.30pm with any signs of a delay to rate rises likely to be very bearish.
USD/JPY
As we’ve said all week, there’s been very little activity on this pair in the lead-up to tonight’s announcement on interest rates from the US Fed. The pair has traded in a very tight range and this usually means that when we see a move, it’s likely to be a big move. Tonight’s Fed decision and press conference could be the trigger for such a move, so traders will be waiting for a
SILVER
Silver finally broke out of its bullish ascending triangle formation over the last 24 hours and this has now shifted the tone to bullish. There’s some resistance around current levels but any significant break above 36.60 should see further gains. Any move back to support at 36.00 will also be seen as a buying opportunity.
USD/CHF
The dollar-Swiss is behaving in line with expectations as it heads down toward the lower end of the range at 83.30. Traders will be looking to take new shorts on any strength, but will also be cautious in the lead-up to tonight’s rate decision from the US Fed.
GBP/JPY
The GBP/JPY has struggled at resistance at 130.40 over the last 24 hours and has now started to head back to the lower end of the range. After a clear reversal up here, traders will be comfortable taking shorts, but the market is likely to be cautious in lead-up to the BoE minutes due at 6.30pm.
AUD/JPY
Taking a more short-term look at the Aussie-yen, we can see the market is obviously reversing up at 85.20, and this suggests that we might see another attempt on the lows at 84.20. On an intra-day basis, traders will be looking to short around 85.20 with targets back to 84.20.
OIL
Please note that the July crude contract has now expired and we are now using the CLQ1 contract. Crude still looks bearish
with the market drifting lower overnight. Traders will be eyeing the 92.90 level and any break below these levels will be
seen as bearish. Don’t forget crude oil inventories at 12.30am Thursday morning.
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