The Forex Market Insight Report shows charts on different major currencies and commodities, with brief commentaries on how new data releases and news cause movements in the market.

Headline:

  • Equities and risk currencies see late improvement on hopes of Greek deal
  • Euro see strong gains, but GBP and AUD still trapped under resistance
  • US data disappoints, but PCE inflation data surprises to upside
  • Gold finds support at 1490, with other commodities also bouncing from lows
  • Dow jumps 200 points from the lows to finish 0.9% higher
  • We have a big night of data, with German CPI, UK GDP and US consumer confidence

AUD/USD
The Aussie gave traders several opportunities to short up at resistance at 1.0460 over the last 24 hours, but the late rally has turned the picture slightly more bullish. That said, the Aussie remains in a clear downtrend, and therefore traders will be looking to stay focused on the short side. Resistance now moves higher to the weekly highs at 1.0490.

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XAU/USD
Technically, gold remains in a short-term downtrend, after severe selling last week following the US Fed meeting. Last night saw gold find some support around 1490 and this could set off a move back to 1510. Traders are likely to use any move back towards these levels as an opportunity to take new shorts.

EUR/USD
The Euro has shifted into an indecisive phase as we head towards Thursday morning’s all-important Greek vote. Overall, expect shorts to be wound back as we head toward the vote, and a break above 1.4340 sets up a move to test the top side of the trading range at 1.4440.

GBP/USD
The GBPUSD remains trapped under resistance at 1.6050 and the market remains focused on the downside. Any move back toward 1.6000/50 is likely to be seen as a selling opportunity. There’s a number of key UK releases around 6.30pm tonight , including current account, GDP and inflation hearings, and that could be the trigger for further selling.

USD/JPY
The USD/JPY continues to slowly churn higher, with the overnight move terminating just below resistance at 81.10. The market believes further gains are likely for the dollar-yen in the near term and a break above 81.10 will be seen as bullish. Buyers will also be considering longs at support at 80.60.

SILVER
Silver came back to support at 33.30 and now looks to be staging a small bounce. However, the fate of silver will be determined by USD strength, and with the greenback back in favour, further falls in silver might be expected. A break of 33.30 sets up a move to 32.50.
USD/CHF
No change on the USD/CHF with the pair remaining trapped between 83.30 on the downside and 85.50 on the upside. While the pair remains above 83.30, there’s the expectation the pair will move back to resistance at 85.50. A break below 83.30 is bearish.

GBY/JPY
The GBP/JPY has moved back to the downtrend line and this is likely to see sellers emerge. Any reversal around 129.70 will be sellable and traders will be looking to ride the move back to 128.10. Don’t forget we have a raft of UK data due around 6.30pm tonight, including current account, GDP and inflation hearings.

AUD/JPY
The Aussie-yen still won’t break lower, with the pair bouncing back higher over the last 24 hours. With the pair back in the range, there is the possibility we will see a move back to 84.80 before the pair heads back lower.

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OIL
Oil remains trapped in consolidation after last week’s sharp move lower. Traders are likely to play the range, with resistance at 91.30/50 and support at 90.00. A break below 90 will be seen as very bearish.
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