Forex Market Insight 06/29/2011
The Forex Market Insight Report shows charts on different major currencies and commodities, with brief commentaries on how new data releases and news cause movements in the market.
Headline:
- Equities and risk currencies rally on hopes Greek vote will pass
- Euro continues higher as markets reduce shorts ahead of Greek vote
- Aussie gains as commodities creep higher
- Gold, metals, oil and agricultural commodities stronger
- Dow posts second night of strong gains to finish 1.2% higher
- Greek two-stage vote likely Thursday morning, but no definite time; could extend to Friday (our time).
AUD/USD
The Aussie produced a solid bounce over the last 24 hours and, seen in the light of the false break below 1.0460 on Monday night, this produces a slightly more bullish picture. However, a clear break above the top side of the descending triangle is needed for the market to become resolutely bullish. Traders are likely to play the range in the near term.
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XAU/USD
Gold continues to be trapped in this trading range between 1510 on the upside and 1490 on the downside. The bearish pressure is building and gold will be partly driven by the upcoming Greek vote. A successful Greek vote could make gold less attractive from a “flight to safety” perspective.
EUR/USD
The Euro has continued to gain over the last couple of days as traders wind back shorts in the lead-up to the Greek vote. Overall, the bias is bullish, but expect an extremely volatile 48 hours as we head into the Greek vote from Thursday morning onwards.
GBP/USD
The GBPUSD continues to trade perfectly in the range we have identified, with the overnight highs at 1.0645 and the lows at 1.5914. From here, traders will be looking to continue and play the range with an emphasis on the bearish side
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY bounced from support at 80.60 overnight before breaking above resistance at 81.00. However, the USD/JPY was unable to hold on to these higher levels and has now reversed back towards support. Traders will be looking to build new longs around 80.60.
SILVER
No real change on silver with the white metal continuing to trade in the range. Overall, the bears look in control of this market, and a break below 33.30 is likely to see further selling.
USD/CHF
The USD rally looks to have exhausted itself, at least on the USD/CHF. The break below 83.30 is clearly bearish and traders will be looking to short this pair while dollar-Swiss is under 83.30.
GBP/JPY
The GBP/JPY pushed a little higher yesterday but struggled at resistance near 130.00. From here, the momentum looks to be on the downside, with the market expectation the pair could fall back 128.10.
AUD/JPY
The Aussie-yen has surged all the way back to resistance at 85.50. For now, traders will be looking to take new shorts, but after the false break lower earlier in the week, we could just see an explosion to the upside.
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OIL
Oil broke higher out of consolidation overnight and this suggests a more bullish tone in the market. From here, support is
now seen at the topside of the former trading range at 92.00 with resistance seen at 93.40.
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