The Forex Market Insight Report shows charts on different major currencies and commodities, with brief commentaries on how new data releases and news cause movements in the market.

Headline:

  • Big night for traders as ECB raises rates and US job numbers beat forecasts
  • Euro plunges toward 1.4200 on rate decision before rallying on ECB press conference
  • US ADP jobs numbers ahead of expectations in lead-up to tonight’s non-farms
  • Gold steady, but crude continues move higher
  • Dow pushed 0.7% higher on better jobs data
  • Biggest event of the month tonight: US non-farm payrolls at 10.30pm. Market expects 88,000 increase

AUD/USD
The Aussie saw a very strong session overnight and this means the market will maintain its bullish tone. All eyes are on a break above 1.0780/800 as this sets up a potential medium-term move to 1.1000.

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XAU/USD
Gold is currently consolidating between 1525 and 1535 as the market waits for the next break higher. Gold has gained around US$50 so far this week and the market is clearly bullish. A break above 1535 sets up a move to 1555.

EUR/USD
The Euro was sent lower overnight as the ECB announced a widely-expected rate increase of 25 basis points. However, support was found just above 1.4200 and hawkish commentary from the ECB saw the EUR stage a strong bounce from the lower end of the symmetrical triangle. The market now expects a continuation back to 1.4450 before the sellers re-emerge.

GBP/USD
There was no real action in the ‘cable’ overnight as the BoE kept rates on hold as expected. For now, the downtrend remains in place, with resistance seen at 1.6100 and support at 1.5920. Tonight’s non-farm payrolls could be the eventual trigger for a long-awaited break below 1.5920.

USD/JPY
The USD/JPY used the strong jobs numbers overnight to break above resistance at 81.25, but at the moment it’s a line-ball call whether the pair can hold above this key level. While the pair holds above 81.25, the market is likely to be bullish, but a clear break below 81.25 sets up a new move to the 80.40/60 region.

SILVER
Silver continues to gain in line with other precious metals with the last 24 hours seeing a small step higher. Silver now looks to have cleared the top end of the triangle formation and this sets it up for further gains. A break of 36.80 is likely to see further buying.

USD/CHF
The USD/CHF remains trapped in the range with traders waiting for move to either end of the range before taking positions. Traders will be looking to take longs at 83.30 or shorts at 85.50. A break below 82.80 changes the view to bearish.

GBP/JPY
The GBP/JPY remains trapped under the multi-week downtrend line and traders will be looking to take new shorts on any move back towards the downtrend line. Support continues to be seen at 128.30.

AUD/JPY
The better-than-expected Australian job numbers yesterday helped the AUD/JPY higher after bouncing from levels just above support. From here, the trading bracket moves higher, with support now rising to 87.00 and resistance rising to 88.10.

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OIL
The crude market has recently followed a very precise ‘step-up’ pattern in which it trades in increasingly higher bands. After last night’s move higher, support now rises to 97.70 and resistance rises to 99.40.

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