Forex Market Insight 07/27/2011
The Forex Market Insight Report shows charts on different major currencies and commodities, with brief commentaries on how new data releases and news cause movements in the market.
Headline:
- Greenback falls against all major trading partners as debt crisis continues
- AUD breaks higher, trades close to post-float record at 1.1010
- EUR, GBP both break higher despite poor economic data
- USD/CHF and USD/JPY continue to see sharp falls thanks to flight-to-safety flows
- Dow falls for third day, losing 0.7% overnight, while gold, oil and key commodities all higher
- Today’s key data comes courtesy of AUD CPI at 11.30am with expectations of a 0.7% lift in the June quarter
AUD/USD
The Aussie’s had a monster 48 hours and there’s no reason to expect the action to slow down today. The impending major price point will be Australian June quarter CPI due at 11.30am. The market is expecting a 0.7% quarterly number (or 3.3% on an annual basis) and a higher-than-expected number could be the catalyst to break 1.1000 and beyond.
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XAU/USD
Gold’s been trading in a very natural manner as it pulled back to re-test support at 1610 before attempting its next push higher. Gold’s strength is a reflection of US dollar weakness so the market will expect gold to continue to gain as long as the greenback weakens. A break of 1625 is the next trigger for new longs, while a pullback to 1610 is also buyable.
EUR/USD
The Euro broke higher in yesterday’s Asian session and this shifts market sentiment to bullish. A pullback to 1.4400 is likely to be seen as a buying opportunity while a break of 1.4525 sets up a short-term move to 1.4580
GBP/USD
The pound also pushed higher in yesterday’s Asian session before last night’s in-line GDP result triggered further buying and produced a clear break higher. The break of 1.6350 will be seen as bullish with traders waiting for a pullback in order to take new longs. The next layer of resistance is seen between 1.6440 and 1.6470.
USD/JPY
The dollar-yen continues to grind lower in this downward sloping channel, but the pair is clearly making hard work of it. The USD/JPY has been trading in increasingly tight ranges over the last week as traders remain hesitant to commit to short positions with the threat of Japanese intervention in the currency market. Any move back to 78.20 is seen as sellable.
SILVER
Silver has benefited from US dollar weakness as per the rest of the commodity block and the precious metal is now threatening to break above 41.00. The fact that silver has recently formed a bullish ascending triangle provides further evidence for the bullish view and traders will be looking to take new long on a break of 41.00
USD/CHF
The USD/CHF continues to break lower and last night the pair found support at 80.00. Traders will now be waiting for the next break lower, or waiting for a retracement back to resistance at 80.08.
GBP/JPY
We’re back where we started from on the GBP/JPY with the pair trying to break higher from an ascending triangle formation. While this formation is usually seen as bullish, the strong downtrend on the GBP/JPY means that traders will continue to take shorts around 128.20 until we see a clear break above this level.
AUD/JPY
The AUD/JPY broke above the resistance level and this sets up a move to 86.00. Any pullback to 85.20 could be seen as a buying opportunity for new longs.
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OIL
We’re no further along in gaining any clues on crude after it produced false breaks in either direction overnight. This continues to present a neutral view on crude and traders will be looking to trade the range in the near term.
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