Forex Market Insight 08/03/2011
The Forex Market Insight Report shows charts on different major currencies and commodities, with brief commentaries on how new data releases and news cause movements in the market.
Headline:
- US debt deal passes, but has little impact
- Global equity markets take sharp hit lower after US spending data comes in flat
- Euro back at two-week lows as Spanish, Italian bonds yields rise
- Safe havens soar, with USD/CHF at new record lows
- Gold surges higher to trade above US$1660 per ounce
- Australian retail sales, US ADP payrolls today’s major data
AUD/USD
Yesterday’s break below 1.0910 produced a perfect double-top formation and the natural target for such a move is back to 1.0740. The market has paused around this level and in the near term we could see a move back toward 1.0800. Traders will be watching the price action carefully at this level for an indication of the Aussie’s future direction.
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XAU/USD
Gold surged higher overnight after breaking above resistance at 1632. Traders will be waiting for a short term pullback, potentially to 1632, in order to take new longs.
EUR/USD
The Euro has continued to drift lower on the back of weaker economic news out of Germany. Traders has several chances to short up at resistance at 1.4270 and the focus will now head lower, with traders waiting for a break of 1.4150 to take new shorts.
GBP/USD
The GBP continues to trade in its indecisive ‘megaphone’ pattern but the overnight action saw sterling find support at the lower end of the range at 1.6230. From here, there is an expectation that we will see a push back to the top of the range at 1.6500 and traders will be looking to participate in the move higher.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY has paused on its downward path and is now forming a neutral symmetrical triangle. Most likely, with the US dollar crumbling against other major reserve currencies, the JPY’s lack of participation in the down move is due to worries about intervention from the BoJ. Traders will be likely to wait for a break out of the range before committing to new positions
SILVER
Silver has finally pushed higher from the support we have identified over the last few days and the next target is now 41.00. A break of 41.00 is likely to see further buying.
USD/CHF
The USD/CHF has continued lower overnight breaking to new all-time lows. From here, a move back to 77.30 is likely to bring out new sellers, while a break below 76.50 is also tradeable.
GBP/JPY
The GBP/JPY remains trapped in this broad consolidation pattern and traders will continue to play the range in the near term. While the trend is clearly down, don’t forget that the BoJ is threatening to intervene in the market and this could see a sharp move higher in GBP/JPY if it occurs.
AUD/JPY
The AUD/JPY has fallen back to support at 83.00 and traders will be waiting for a break below that level to take new shorts. A move back to 83.50 could also be seen an sellable.
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OIL
Crude pushed up to resistance at 95.50 before being hit sharply lower by the sellers. The crude market is clearly in control of the bears and traders will be looking for opportunities on the short side. From here, a break below 93.00 is likely provide opportunities for new short positions.
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