The Forex Market Insight Report shows charts on different major currencies and commodities, with brief commentaries on how new data releases and news cause movements in the market.

Headline:

  • Risk appetite wanes in final session of extremely negative quarter dominated by European debt worries
  • After losses on Friday, Euro break to new lows in early Monday trading in bearish sign
  • AUD/USD back at lows as pair forms bearish triangle
  • Gold flat, but silver and oil both lower on Friday
  • Dow finishes 2.5% to close quarter down more than 12%
  • This week, stay focused on Europe; China closed for the week; RBA decision tomorrow; EUR and UK rate decisions on Thursday night; US non-farms on Fri.

AUD/USD
The Aussie was sold heavily into last week’s close and we’ve started the new week on a bearish footing. The pair now looks increasingly like it is producing a bearish descending triangle and this will dominate the market’s view in the near term. A clear break below 0.9900/20 will complete the bearish pattern and trigger new shorts

GOLD
While most other instruments saw plenty of action on Friday, the gold price has been strangely unmoved. Gold is clearly in consolidation mode with a symmetrical triangle dominating trade between 1600 and 1640. Traders will be looking to either play the range or wait for a break.

EUR/USD
The Euro has broken below major support in early trade on Monday morning and this sets up a bearish phase for this pair in the near term. While the pair is below 1.3400 traders will focus on the short side with initial dynamic support at 1.3310.
GBP/USD

USD/JPY
The USD/JPY has pushed higher thanks to risk aversion with the greenback clearly strengthening in recent trading. The market will continue to use major levels of support and resistance to play the range in the near term.

SILVER
The GBP/USD remains in the trading band with the market waiting for a break below 1.5550 to continue the next phase of the downtrend. A move back to resistance at 1.5700 could also be seen as sellable.

USD/CHF
The dollar-Swiss continues to remain in the broad trading range with support at 0.8920 and resistance at 0.9180. More aggressive traders might consider new shorts up at 0.9180 but most traders will be looking for longs in line with the medium term trend.

GBP/JPY
The sterling-yen is starting to show some more strength but traders will be mindful of the long-term downtrend and continue to look for shorts from higher levels. A move above 121.00 will change the view to neutral.

AUD/JPY
The AUD/JPY is under pressure but the confirmation of the next move lower won’t occur until we see a break below 73.40. A retracement higher back towards 75.00 can also be seen as a selling opportunity.
OIL
Oil was sent sharply lower by the turnaround in risk appetite on Friday and is now trading at crucial support at 78.00. A clear break of 78.00 will be seen as the trigger for the next round of selling.

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