The Forex Market Insight Report shows charts on different major currencies and commodities, with brief commentaries on how new data releases and news cause movements in the market.

Headline:

  • Risk heads lower as EU summit delay spooks investors
  • Aussie, Euro both drift lower but move is marginal
  • Gold surges on risk aversion as EU delay sparks fears of unmanaged Greek default
  • USD/JPY falls back below 76.00 as market fret about further intervention
  • Dow loses 1.7% on Europe fears
  • Australian CPI the day‟s main event; market expects 0.6% for the quarter

AUD/USD
The Aussie has pulled back toward support at 1.0380. Today‟s CPI at 11.30 is crucial. The market is expecting 0.6% for the quarter. The market currently believes we have a good chance of 25 bps cut over the next few months, but any more than that is unlikely. So, the risk is to the upside. A higher than expected result will see the Aussie surge.

GOLD
Gold has finally seen a trend change with the sharp move higher overnight and this puts the ball back in the bulls‟ court. Traders will now be looking for long opportunities with support seen at 1695.

EUR/USD
The Euro was relatively unaffected by the selldown in risk overnight and that should be seen as a positive for the single currency. Of course, the event risk is high in the near term and traders will be looking for a break ou of the current trading pattern for the best opportunities.

GBP/USD
The pound looks to be wavering up at higher levels forming a „high wave‟ reversal pattern. We could see the GBP/USD ease back to support between 1.5850 and 1.5900. A clear break above 1.6050 is bullish.

USD/JPY
Dollar-yen are facing a clear conundrum and we aren‟t able to provide too much help. The Bank of Japan could intervene and this would see a huge move higher, but otherwise, the USD/JPY is likely to continue to continue to move lower at glacial speed. Event traders are likely to build longs at lower levels in expectation of possible intervention.

SILVER
Silver, like gold, has seen a complete reversal over the last 24 hours and the strong price action suggests that we could be about to see further gains. A break above 33.60 is needed to confirm this view.

USD/CHF
No change on the USD/CHF with the pair now in a clear downtrend and support seen at 0.8775. A break of this level is likely to be seen as the next trigger for shorts.

GBP/JPY
The GBP/JPY is forming a bullish ascending triangle at lower levels and a move above 122.00 would see buyers moving in for a short term move to the next layer of resistance at 122.60.

AUD/JPY
Just like yesterday, the AUD/JOY is building pressure at lower levels and a move above 80.00 would be seen as the trigger for new longs. However, this pair is heavily influenced by risk appetite so bad news out of Europe could see selling.

OIL
Crude is pulling back to the first layer of support and buyers will be looking for signs of a bounce at that level. If we see a break below 92.00 the next major level is 90.00.

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