The Forex Market Insight Report shows charts on different major currencies and commodities, with brief commentaries on how new data releases and news cause movements in the market.

Headline:

  • Markets produce strong risk rally as Greece passes first stage of debt vote
  • Euro gains 100 pips ahead of vote, but treads water on the announcement
  • Risk currencies push higher, with AUD breaking out of long-term range
  • Commodities higher, with oil leading the charge on lower inventories
  • Dow posts third straight winning session to close 0.6% higher
  • Tonight’s focus still on Greece, with second vote crucial, while EU and US employment numbers also due

AUD/USD
The Aussie surged overnight on the optimism generated by the passages of the Greek vote. The Aussie broke above the upper side of the descending triangle and this now changes the market view to bullish. Support is now seen at 1.0600 with resistance now seen up at 1.0780.

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XAU/USD
Gold remains trapped under resistance at 1510 and the market is likely to be focused on the downside until we see a clear break above 1510. Gold has most recently risen on the improvement in risk appetite, so further gains in equities could see the gold break above 1510.
EUR/USD
The Euro pushed higher in the lead up to the Greek vote but, as expected, we saw the EURUSD ease back immediately after the vote. While tonight’s second vote will also be important, volatility should ease on this pair and traders will be looking to play the range in the near term.

GBP/USD
Like gold, the pound rallied on the Greek news, but also like gold, it was unable to make a break higher above resistance. This means that the market is likely to continue to favour the downside, with the potential for the GBP/USD to head back to the lower end of the range at 1.5920.

USD/JPY
The bullishness generated by the passage of the Greek vote caused the USD to decline as traders favoured risk positions. This has brought the dollar-yen back to support at 80.60 and in the near term, the market will view this as a likely level of support. A clear break below 80.60 would void this bullish view.

SILVER
Silver benefited from the overnight bullishness, pushing the white metal above resistance at 34.50 and this sets up a move toward 35.50/36.00 resistance. Overall, the market remains focused on the downside, so any move back to 35.50/36.00 is likely to be seen as sellable.

USD/CHF
The USD/CHF’s overnight push higher has been terminated at the weekly highs and the market now expects the pair to head back lower. To the downside, the next level of support is seen at 82.70, but a break below that would see further selling.

GBP/JPY
The GBP/JPY is still capped under 130.00, but for most of the week the momentum has been with the bulls and the JPY weakens. While below 130.00, traders will be favouring the downside, but the market is also wary of a break higher above 130.00.

AUD/JPY
The Aussie-yen broke out of its long-term consolidation pattern overnight and this now changes the market view to bullish. The next major level of resistance is 87.50 and traders will be looking for a pullback to 85.50 to rebuild long positions.

OIL
Oil continued to push higher overnight after an unexpected drop in inventories. Crude found resistance up at 95.80 at the previous swing highs and for now, there’s an expectation we could see crude move back to support at 94.00/20 before taking the next step higher

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