The Forex Market Insight Report shows charts on different major currencies and commodities, with brief commentaries on how new data releases and news cause movements in the market.

Headline:

  • Risk instruments close massive week; many signal clear trend reversal
  • New week starts with focus on potential for continuation of bullishness
  • Aussie dollar gains could be vulnerable in lead-in to Tuesday’s RBA rate decision
  • Euro bears will be looking at new week as possible opportunity
  • Commodity market continue explosive gains; copper up more than 15% in six sessions
  • RBA, Fed and ECB meetings; US non-farms and G20 ahead of us in another bumper week

AUD/USD
New week, and as we start the week’s trading, the focus will be on whether markets start to focus on the potential for a rate cut from the RBA this week. If so, we could see a break below 1.0650 as the trigger for sellers. However, the long-term bias remains to the upside and any RBA-induced weakness will be seen as a chance for buyers later in the week.

GOLD
As with Friday, gold still has a broad support zone between 1720 and 1740 and traders will be waiting to see how the picture develops into the new trading week. Overall, however, the bias remains to the upside.

EUR/USD
Like the Aussie, the Euro is looking like it needs to take a breather, with the RSI reversing from the overbought level. The Euro is likely to be a real battlefield this week with the bears looking to use the recent rise as a new opportunity to short. But any bounce from the 1.3950/400 level could signal medium-term strength for the EUR/USD.

GBP/USD
The pound has held onto its recent gains in a positive sign and the bulls will be waiting for a break above 1.6160 for the next trigger for new longs. Support is also seen lower at 1.6040.

USD/JPY
No change for USD/JPY traders. Some traders with be sellers on any retracement higher in order to take advantage of the dominant downtrend, while macro and fundamental traders will be looking to build longs at lower levels in hope of BoJ intervention

SILVER
Silver has certainly been displaying some strength and like most other instruments this week, it’ll be a waiting game to see how the market digests last week’s gains. There’s the potential for a pullback to 34.00 before we see the next bounce so some caution is warranted.

USD/CHF
The dollar-Swiss consolidated on Friday after breaking below major support at 0.8730. In the near term, traders will be looking for shorts at minor resistance at 0.8650 or major resistance at 0.8730.

GBP/JPY
The sterling-yen continues to build a large ascending triangle with a break of 122.70 seen as bullish. The intra-day buyers will be using 122.00 as support.

AUD/JPY
The Aussie-yen could be susceptible to some weakness early this week as we head into the RBA decision but the market will maintain a bullish bias while we are above 80.00. A break of 81.65 will be seen a trigger for new longs.

OIL
Crude’s forming a descending triangle in an uptrend and this could see some caution creep into this market. Traders will be playing the range in the near term until we see a new break higher to confirm the uptrend.