A$ at the mercy of RBA
After a solid domestic session the Aussie dollar slipped lower overnight with retreating US equities and losses on the Euro encouraging US dollar strength against its major rivals. The Euro's losses were compounded after Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker the currency is overvalued relative to its major counterparts. Nevertheless, the theme of resilience has continued on for the Aussie dollar which has largely held on to its post above 107 US cents - only briefly dipping to lows of 106.92 US cents earlier this morning. From a technical perspective, resistance around the 107.5 level remains in place with a further pocket of resistance 107.65 US cents which was adhered to yesterday. Nevertheless, today's Interest rate decision should have no trouble pushing the local unit to new intra-week highs if we should see the decision or subsequent statement provide a hawkish outlook.
Today's rates decision should prove to be as influential a decision on the Aussie dollar as they come - market participants are increasingly divided as to whether the RBA will do some pre-emptive tweaking or chill on the side-lines until the August meeting in which they will have the benefit of further understanding on inflationary pressures in the second quarter with 2Q CPI due in July. The latter makes perfect sense given the host of contradicting data in recent times - however the RBA have recently expressed their intention to "look through" what was expected to be a quarter of uneven economic activity given the recent spate of natural disasters. Besides the banks famously proactive reputation, there have been some ticks in the 'for' column which has some well reputed rates projectionist tipping for a hike as soon as today. Although there are convincing reasons that point to a June/July hike, the August meeting would be the happy-medium; this also implies the RBA may begin to prepare the market for a near-rate hike - which in itself may promote strength in the local unit. That said, it's also important to consider the downside - Market positioning appears to be holding the Aussie higher against major rivals in anticipation, should the RBA disappoint there's potential for even more impressive losses. At the time of writing the Aussie dollar is buying 107.25 US cents.
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