Nickel, Copper Prices To Be Affected By El Niño

A cyclical meteorological event called El Niño is already present in parts of Southeast Asia, Australia, and parts of the Americas. According to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, the drought is about to set major damages in the affected regions.

Earlier predictions of a docile El Niño season were published earlier this year, 2015, but based on recent studies, the meteorological event will be stronger this season as it could become a “substantial” drought. “This is a proper El Niño effect, it’s not a weak one,” said David Jones, manager of climate monitoring for Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, reported Mining.com.

“There’s always a little bit of doubt when it comes to intensity forecasts, but across the models as a whole we’d suggest that this will be quite a substantial El Niño event,” added Jones in the same post. Neil Plummer, assistant director for Climate Information Services, said that this year’s El Niño came earlier than usual.

“Typically, El Niño events commence between June and November,” said Plummer, in the bureau’s official website. El Niño, described as the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, develops in a cycle every two to seven years. The event is notorious for brining paralysing droughts to Australia and monsoons in Southeast Asia. This effect could ultimately devastate economies and halt the scheduled production of agricultural businesses.

Past droughts in Indonesia, a country known for its nickel and copper produce, resulted to production declines as power facilities were gravely affected. Rainfall in Peru flooded zinc mines, and price spikes became prevalent. Recent rainfall and flooding in the copper-rich northern Chile caused price hikes as well, and this could easily happen to nickel and copper produced in Australia and the Philippines.

Russian mines, particularly those in the Far East such as Amur Minerals Corporation (London AIM:AMC), will not be affected by this upcoming El Niño. This secures the exploration and production of nickel and copper from Russia, while other metals industry giants, such as Australia and the Philippines, might have to adjust.

Aside from mining, several other industries could suffer from this season’s El Niño. Australia’s prosperous dairy and beef industries are in danger due to the reduced grass, as predicted by analysts. The country’s sugar cane industry will also be impacted as a clear result of drought.

The drought, set to hit Southeast Asia, could lessen crops, including rice in Thailand and coffee in Vietnam. Malaysia and Indonesia’s rubber and palm oil trees are also in danger of being malnourished. Less rainfall could significantly affect the production of wheat, cotton, and sugar.

Indian farmers are known to be hoarders of gold, and UBS analysts predicted that the weak monsoon brought by the crippling drought could affect the purchasing of this precious metal. In West Africa, El Niño impacted cocoa production due to aridity.

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