NOAA says La Niña likely to replace El Niño during cold months

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts that the days of El Niño are now numbered, and the weather phenomenon would likely be completely gone by spring. However, in its place would come La Niña, or anti-El Niño.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) confirmed on Thursday that El Ni ñ o has passed its peak based on atmospheric pressure, specific temperature and wind conditions, reports KCCI. NOAA lead El Niño forecaster Michelle L’Heureux concedes that the WMO assessment is technically true, but maintains there were be a few months of lag time before US residents feel the impact.

Since La Ni ñ a, which cools down sea surface temperature warmed by El Niño, would like begin during the colder months, it impact would be more noticeable if it hits in winter than in summer. In the US, the northern states would feel cooler and wetter because of La Niña, while among southern states, residents would feel drier and warmer, reports Gizmodo.

In between the two, there would be a brief neutral period, adds NOAA. However, there is still a 50 percent chance that it would only be by the end of summer that La Niña would show, NOAA says. If it doesn’t, it has 80 percent chances of arriving in winter.

While the current El Niño is described by NOAA forecasters as on par with the strongest on record, which occurred in 1997-98, the agency says it has no way of forecasting how strong the incoming La Niña pattern would be. Although NOAA is confident that La Niña would arrive, predicting its strength is not possible at this time yet, says Huug van den Dool, NOAA forecaster.