Earlier this week, the 53rd of Japan's 54 nuclear reactors was shutdown for regular inspection, leaving just one reactor operating in the country.

It's a move full of symbolism in Japan, just over a year after the terrible quake and tsunami which helped create the Fukushima disaster and the nuclear power crisis.

Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco) the owners of Fukushima, cut the power output to its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant's No.6 reactor in Niigata Prefecture, in central Japan.

The shutdown took the best part of two days and means that Tepco, the owner of the stricken Fukushima plant, now has all 17 of its reactors shutdown for the first time since 2003, when it was found that the company had covered up a series of safety problems.

Tepco, which supplies power mainly to the Tokyo metropolitan area, had generated about 30% percent of its capacity with nuclear plants up the Fukushima disaster started on March 11 last year.

Six reactors at the Fukushima Daichi complex were damaged or shutdown as a result of the disasters.

A further six may join them in not being re-opened, ever.

Tepco has been bailed out and supported by the Japanese government for the past 10 months. This week it asked the Government for another $A1.2 billion in aid.

March 2011 saw a series of mishaps, errors and other problems saw explosions, partial meltdowns and other problems close the station, spread fallout across thousands of square kilometres and cause the evacuation of more than 100,000 people, all of whom are unable to return home.

As a result, there are quite a few analysts and others who believe there is an increasing chance that none of the idled reactors will be returned to service in Japan for at least two years, and perhaps longer.

The domestic political situation is gridlocked, with the government and opposition arguing over a hike in the GST.

Nothing else seems to matter and a new look nuclear regulator has been relayed and won't start until June, at the earliest.

Several local governments are very much opposed to nuclear power or facing growing local pressure to end nuclear power generation.

If none of these stations resume production, Japan will have additional huge costs to decommission them, or keep them idled, but in working condition.

Some analysts in Australia wonder if a lengthy delay in Japan could impact BHP Billion's thinking about the huge expansion at Olympic Dam which plans to expand its already substantial output of uranium.

Others say the still strong building plans in China means demand for uranium will continue to be strong, a point the Federal Government's key resources forecaster agrees with.

Before then, Japan and the Japanese economy have to get through another tough summer with a lower margin for error insofar as power supplies are concerned.

As the weather warms, Japan faces a possible energy crisis, considering that last summer it still had 19 nuclear plants in operation.

So far a power crisis has been averted by changing working hours and days and urging business and the public to conserve energy. But this year they have to find extra cuts or energy supplies to make up for the closure of all the nuclear stations.

At the time of the nuclear accident in March last year, 37 reactors were in operation.

And when the country's 54th reactor (Tomari reactor and power station in Hokkaido) close in early May for inspections, every reactor in Japan will be shut.

In 2010, Japan got 30% of its electricity from nuclear plants, that level plunged amid the disaster and other problems and closures in 2011.

The shutdowns and suspensions of operation has seen Japanese power companies restart idled thermal power plants and ask companies and households to conserve energy in order to make up for the loss of nuclear power.

Tens of billions of dollars worth of extra LNG and thermal coal have been imported from overseas (much of it from Australia).

Figures out yesterday in Japan show the country's five largest power utilities will have lifted their spending on fuel by 60% by the time the books are ruled off for the current Japanese fiscal year tomorrow night.

That will be recovered by higher charges on consumers, but not so much on business as the companies and the government try to keep exports competitive.

The imports helped drive Japan's trade position into deficit for five months up to last December, and contributed to the first annual trade deficit for decades.

Japan had a small surplus in January as exports to the rebounding US economy recovered strongly.

That was enough to offset the continuing high cost of the extra fossil fuels for the domestic power industry.

Now, no one can say with any certainty if any of the closed stations will re-open.

The six at Fukushima certainly won't, and a couple of others are in the very doubtful category because they are located new fault zones or are old. Analysts say a dozen could close permanently.

But the current government has a semi adopted policy to end nuclear power generation in the not too distant future.

Japan's Nuclear Safety Commission last Friday endorsed the results of stress tests conducted on 2 nuclear reactors at the Ohi plant in Fukui Prefecture.

The national government now has to have the courage to decide if the commission's endorsement is sufficient to obtain local consent to restart the 2 reactors.

Local approvals will be difficult because of the rising tide of opposition from ordinary Japanese, especially in the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster.

That revealed poor planning, regulation, panic and ignorance about what to do at Tepco (the plant's owners and operators), the central government and among regulators.

Last week Australia's key resource forecaster, the Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics (BREE) said that "Developments in Japanese energy policy, particularly the timing of nuclear reactor restarts in the wake of the Fukushima reactor disaster, and global economic uncertainty are likely to influence uranium price movements in 2012."

"As of February 2012, only two of Japan's 51 nuclear power plants remain operational, with plans to close these for inspection in early 2012.

"Fourteen power plants have undergone stress tests as part of the safety assessment, but still require approval from local authorities in order to restart.

"Given increasing public opposition towards nuclear energy in parts of Japan it is unclear when the reactors will restart, however, with almost 30 per cent of Japan's energy previously coming from nuclear power it is assumed in this outlook that in the short to medium term Japan will need to return to nuclear energy.

"Japan's uranium consumption in 2012 is forecast to remain low at around 3300 tonnes based on the assumption that around 15 reactors restart.

"The restart of Japanese reactors is unlikely to require a significant amount of additional uranium in 2012, with existing inventories from offline reactors more likely to be used.

"In the medium term, Japan's consumption of uranium will depend on decisions to continue with previous plans to build additional nuclear reactors.

"Prior to policy changes away from nuclear energy, Japan had two reactors under construction with plans to build another two by 2017.

"Assuming that the two planned reactors no longer go ahead due to the policy change, uranium consumption is projected to decrease from a 2010 pre-Fukushima accident consumption level at an annual average rate of 1 per cent to around 8600 tonnes by 2017.

"Decreased nuclear energy production due to Government policy may result in even lower consumption if additional nuclear power plants are closed in the outlook period."

"As of February 2012, there were 386 nuclear power plants operating around the world with a total generating capacity of approximately 330 Gigawatts electric.

"In addition, there are currently 49 Japanese nuclear reactors temporarily closed for safety inspections following the Fukushima reactor accident, although many of these may be expected to restart over the next two years.

"The US and France are the two largest producers of nuclear energy, with 104 reactors in the US and 58 in France producing 102 and 63 Gigawatts electric respectively.

"In 2012, world uranium consumption is forecast to increase by 5 per cent to around 77 300 tonnes.

"This growth will be underpinned by the start up of eight new reactors including two in both China and India.

"In addition, there are three reactors in Canada scheduled to restart and it is assumed that some of the nuclear power stations in Japan which are currently offline for safety inspections, will be restarted by the second half of 2012.

"Offsetting these factors will be lower demand associated with a number of reactors that shutdown in Germany and Japan in the second half of 2011," BREE said.

Despite some governments in Europe, notably Germany, deciding to phase out atomic power, figures from the World Nuclear Association reveal that 60 new reactors are under construction globally, with 163 more on order or planned. Prior to Fukushima, there were 62 under construction and 156 on order or planned.

Demand is coming from developing economies whose demand for electricity is rising.

Of the 60 reactors, roughly two-thirds are from emerging economies, most in Asia, notably in China.

One new station and reactor in the US has been approved in the past month, but it still has to get started and built.

The surge in US gas production is undermining the case of nuclear power by the day.

In December, coal's share of power generation fell below 40% in the US for the first time in 27 years.

That is going to make nuclear look unappealing, even after all the carbon emissions.

Copyright Australasian Investment Review.
AIR publishes a weekly magazine. Subscriptions are free at www.aireview.com.au