Say, what's Google's progress solving that Android fragmentation problem?
I got wondering, because the noise about it has quieted down since Google I/O last month. So I looked and, gasp, not much is different at all.
On April 1, only 2.5 percent of Android devices ran the newest versions -- 2.3 or 2.3.3, according to official Android Developers stats. The others: 63.9 percent Android 2.2; 27.2 percent v2.1; 3.5 percent v1.6; and 2.7 percent v1.5. Android 2.3 released about four months earlier.
How's it looking two months later, on June 1? The chart above is pretty clear. The Android 2.2 install base is 64.6 percent -- it's larger. The newest version is some iteration of 2.3 -- lumped together it's 9.2 percent. So Android 2.3 more than tripled in three months, from a low base. Considering Google released v2.3 in December, 9.2 percent isn't exactly awe-inspiring, particularly with more than 400,000 Android activations per day. That's the number Google reported last month.
Let's do some quickie math and be generous to Google. At the current rate, then, not even 40,000 out of 400,000 daily activations are for the newest Android version (by assuming adoption rate is consistent with install base). What kind of backwards math is that? I sure hope Google uses better math than that on its search algorithm.
Let's assume the average number of activations for June will be 400,000 (it won't, the number will be higher) and install base will reach 15 percent by month's end (it won't, percentage will be lower). By the simplest math -- that guesstimate stuff taught in public schools now -- that works out to 60,000 Android 2.3 activations per day or 1.8 million for the month. The number of older Android activations: 10.2 million.
So-o-o-o, you think Apple only has 9.2 percent of iPhones on iOS 4.x? No answer is necessary. Apple actually ships the newest iOS version on all its phones -- a difference Google really needs to worker harder to fix.
Last month, Google announced that the next version of Android, Ice Cream Sandwich, will unify the disparate versions available for Google TV, smartphones and tablets. Yeah? It may melt before enough carriers ship it on enough new smartphones or update older models.