Apple's $500 to $2,500 Devices: Massive Price Cuts Looming?
Apple Inc. later today will report its fourth-quarter earnings that would for the nth time exceed analysts' estimates and further grow its mountain of cash.
Already amassing $76.17 billion in cash and marketable securities by the end of its third quarter ended June 25, 2011, Apple will further boost its cash pile as Apple is paying half of the price for hardware components used for the $999 11.6 inch MacBook Air, the $2,499 17-inch MacBook Pro, the $49 iPod shuffle, the $199 iPod touch, the $649 iPhone, and the $499 iPad 2.
Apple has been able to charge a premium for its devices -- and take a margin of 40% -- because it has a built-in following, it has the world's most valuable global brand, and it has the ability to create demand and hype for its pricey devices. But in the post-Steve Jobs era, can Apple sustain the business of being the largest maker of "luxury" computing devices?
New Strategy
Apple's visionary, Steve Jobs, has made Apple into the world's most valuable tech company, so it would surprise pundits if new CEO Tim Cook changes Apple's tried-and-tested battle plans this early. But with rivals gaining momentum and the lure of entering emerging markets, will Cook, who was has been credited for Apple's supply-chain prowess, widen its product portfolio (i.e. put cheap devices alongside the pricey devices) in order to widen Apple's appeal with consumers and penetrate emerging markets?
Amid tepid economic conditions, cheap products from Apple could expand Apple's market share. Engaging competitors through a price-war rather than innovation is not Jobs-like. "A lot of companies have chosen to downsize, and maybe that was the right thing for them. We chose a different path. Our belief was that if we kept putting great products in front of [customers], they would continue to open their wallets," Jobs said in 2003.
An article published by Reuters says that after iPhone 4S's debut, Cook must reposition the Apple brand. "They've got to find a new voice in the market. Steve Jobs was so much the face of Apple," Tim Calkins, a marketing professor at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management who has advised clients like Eli Lilly & Co, told Reuters. "Protect the core elements of the brand, but at the same time, move forward."
For the past decade, high prices point hasn't been a barrier from Apple; in fact, it distinguishes itself from rivals. Apple has been known to provide sleek and revolutionary devices that are worth the price.
But Apple is no longer the technological master of the universe. The success of the 5th generation iPhone has been attributed to Apple's marketing prowess rather than a revolutionary technology.
The iPhone 4S, launched last week had a 8-megapixel camera and a dual core processor that are already in Android phones, although it has Siri, a voice-based personal assistant. "Despite Siri, the iPhone 4S isn't a dramatic game-changer. Some new features are catch-ups to competitors," reviewer Walt Mossberg wrote in the Wall Street Journal.
Device-makers like HTC, Samsung and Motorola have provided the market with devices that are also sleek, have bigger screens, and better connectivity. They have been able to boost market share although at this time their growth has hit Nokia and Research In Motion's BlackBerry more than Apple.
Aside from stiffer competition from Android device makers, Apple may need to put up cheaper devices in order to enter new markets.
Cook opened the Let's Talk iPhone event on Oct. 4 disclosing Apple's expansion plans into China by opening more Apple Stores and signing deals with wireless carriers. But selling iPhone limits Apple's appeal in emerging markets where pricing is a factor.
At present Apple is selling the iPhone 4S at $199 on a two-year contract with carriers, but the unlocked, contract-free version is priced at $649. Doing the math, the alleged subsidy or savings of the $350 upfront will be recovered by carriers over time through your monthly bills and the early termination or migration fees.
Emerging Markets
Apple sold about 20.4 million units of the iPhone in the third quarter ended June 25, 2011. Apple's expansion to China will probably add 1 to 2 million units in quarterly sales.
But note that the 2 million is less than 1% of the over 900 million mobile phone users in China. While Apple has improved its worldwide market share to almost 20% in the smartphone market, it has less than 5% of the entire mobile phone market (which includes the $50 to $100 talk-and-text only phones). If Cook, tagged an operation genius, expands Apple's reach beyond its niche high-end crowd, perhaps he could enhance the Cupertino, California-based company's value from $370 billion to $500 billion.
Bloomberg said last month that Apple is having trouble selling iPhones in India (Apple only has 2.6% of the smartphone market) because while BlackBerries are available for only $200, the cheapest iPhone 4 costs $705 at a reseller. India has 602 million active subscribers.
"I don't think Apple is a brand for the masses," Ajit Joshi, managing director of Croma, which also sells other brands besides Apple, told Bloomberg. "It's a brand for the classes."
$199 Tablets
Recent developments in the tablet arena appear to be forcing Apple to change its game-plan.
PCWorld has points out that the demand for low-priced tablets has gone up in recent months, as witnessed by the mad rush to buy Hewlett-Packard's $99 TouchPad tablet.
Amazon will start shipping next month its $199 Kindle Fire tablet. Although it doesn't have the latest processors or hardware and doesn't even have a camera, the tablet is expected to lure consumers using Amazon's deep portfolio of digital content. Lenovo has also launched $199 IdeaPad A1, an Android tablet with a 7-inch capacitive touchscreen. Lenovo is the largest PC vendor in China and has a wide distribution channel in the country of 1.3 billion people.
Rumors have surfaced that Apple would be selling a mini iPad or iPad Mini to take on the Kindle Fire and other cheap tablets. Reports not confirmed by Apple say the iPad Mini would have a smaller and affordable version to the 9.7-inch iPad.
According to the Taiwanese Economic Daily News, two potential suppliers - Korean LG Display and Taiwanese AU Optronics - have both sent samples of screens to Apple for a 7.85-inch iPad. Slash Gear's Shane McGlaun, however, said it would make more sense to see an iPad with the same size as the current one with less storage and cheaper hardware. Jobs was quoted as saying last year, "The reason we [won't] make a 7-inch tablet isn't because we don't want to hit that price point, it's because we think the screen is too small to express the software."
"Our research is pointing to the unveiling of a lower priced iPad in the first few months of 2012 that is aimed at expanding the company's market potential by tapping into a more price sensitive consumer segment," Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White wrote in a note to investors, according to Fox News. "Essentially, this 'iPad mini' will also fend off the recently announced Amazon Kindle Fire that addresses the low-end tablet market with a $199 price tag but could lead to bigger tablet ambitions from the online retailer in the future."
Masses
Aside from the iPad, there could be more Apple devices for the price-sensitive consumer market in the future.
Before the iPhone 4S was unveiled Oct. 4, there have been reports that Apple would be releasing two new phones -- a new phone with a whole new design and larger screen (iPhone 5) and an affordable version of the 4th generation iPhone (iPhone 4S). The two-iPhone-types rumors never materialized. Apple instead unveiled only an iPhone 4S that has an upgraded processor, camera, software.
But Apple is already starting to release cheaper devices. Apple did announce this month these affordable alternatives: in addition to the iPhone 4S available for $199 on two-year contract with networks, the iPhone 4 is now available for only $99 on two-year contracts; and the iPhone 3GS is available for free on a contract. Apple has also cut the price of its iPod Touch, with the 8 GB version, to $199 from $229.
The prevalence of rumors of cheap Apple devices hitting shelves gives credibility that Apple may indeed move towards that direction. A $200 iPad, $600 MacBook, or a $300 unlocked iPhone? Not for now, but possible in the future.
Where there's smoke, there's fire.