Apple’s new ‘iPhone M’ Will Outsell the iPhone 5s
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) comes off as one of the high-end brands when it comes to smart phones and other devices like tablets and laptops. The higher price of Apple products paired with growing competition from other companies offering more affordable products is putting a dent on the sales of the California giant. This also spawned the calls and suggestions that Apple should begin investing on more entry-level and affordable phones.
Hence, "iPhone M" came about.
According to analysts, the much-rumored iPhone is important if Apple wants to make sure their market share does not collapse. They may have better phones or have a "higher end" appeal but this is not enough to sustain sales. The increase in number of competitors with more affordable options is also not helping.
A customer would prefer buying a different phone so long as it has similar features. Instead of just the features or functions, the more deciding factor more many consumers is the price. UBS analyst Steve Milunovich discussed in one of his research notes that if the tech giant will push through with the "iPhone M" then it have explosive unit sales.
However, other iPhone lines may suffer. People will definitely want a piece of Apple for a lesser price but the market may forget about other products. The challenge for Apple now is to balance promotion of their lower end and higher end products. According to Mr Milunovich, if Apple releases the iPhone M then it can still make up to 3% of the overall company sales for this year.
Many reports indicate that Apple plans to release the entry-level handset by September. If this is true then Milunovich's prediction is possible. As little as the percentage the phone can accumulate for the current fiscal year, the following year, 2014, is an entirely different story.
The analyst believes that if the iPhone M can have a full year of sale then it can sell as much as 92 million units. This comprises more than half of the overall projected Apple sales for 2014. Milunovich says sales can account for 53% of the total sales for the company. This means analysts consider iPhone M to outsell the upcoming flagship series iPhone 5s.
Although analysts commend the instant success projections for the entry-level phone, concentrating on the handset can harm the company in the long run. The smartphone can maintain the market share of Apple but it also can also cause a decrease in the company's margins.
"In our model, the iPhone M is dilutive not only to gross margin but to gross profit dollars," Milunovich indicated in his note.
"The impact of the M depends on assumptions. We estimate the 4/4S, which the M would replace, currently have a gross margin of 55% because of the low cost of older components. We also assume the gross margin of the M will be near 32%. And we estimate shipment of 92mn iPhone M units in F14."
"Because the M has such a lower gross margin than the 4/4S, the M reduces earnings in our model. iPhone gross profit declines by 4% or $1.6bn with the iPhone 5/5S profit up $4.9bn and the 4/4S/M profit down $6.5bn. The net iPhone impact is a reduction to F14E EPS of $1.16. In this case, Apple would be looking to add new users to its ecosystem at the expense of short-term profit, which CFO Peter Oppenheimer said the company occasionally does," he added.