Australia's Employers Prefer Internet Job Ads
Job Adverstisements still Sluggish
Australia's employers have opted to advertise online rather than on newspapers, according to the latest survey conducted by ANZ Bank, which showed a a monthly and annual decline indicative of a persistent sluggish economic growth.
The survey indicated that total job advertisements on the internet and in newspapers decreased by 0.6 percent in August. Annual growth in total job advertisements decelerated to 6.1 percent year-on-year.
Newspaper job ads fell by 3.0 percent month-on-month , while internet job advertising decreased by 0.5 percent month-on-month. Newspaper advertising is now 15.6 percent lower than a year ago, while internet advertising is now 7.3% higher over the same period, in part reflecting the continuing structural shift to online advertising.
In trend terms, total job ads fell by 0.5% m/m in August with the annual growth rate slowing to 6.2% y/y. The monthly trend in total job advertisements began slowing in January and has been negative since April this year.
According to the ANZ's chief economist Warren Hogan, the number of job advertisements declined again in August, falling 0.6 from 6.1 percent above year ago levels. This is the second consecutive fall in job advertising and the fourth monthly decline in the past five months.
"Over the six months to August 2011 total job advertising has fallen by 3.4 percent. Job advertising is clearly in a cyclical slowdown in 2011, consistent with other indicators of both economic activity and labour demand," Mr Hogan said.
He pointed out that the decline in newspaper job advertising has been more severe, falling 3.0 percent in August to be 15.6 percent lower than a year ago.
"Newspaper job ads have fallen in each of the last six months and down 14.7% over this time. While some of this relative weakness in newspaper advertising likely reflects a compositional shift in advertising trends towards the internet, recent history suggests newspaper ads do lead overall advertising trends. Internet advertising trends have been less pronounced with a smaller monthly fall of 0.5 percent recorded and the level still 7.3 percent higher than a year ago," the report said.
"We will be watching job advertising trends closely over the second half of 2011 as an indicator of likely economic momentum in 2012. With unemployment likely to rise further from current levels, any noticeable further weakness in labour demand could change the RBA's assessment of medium-term inflation risks. As such, the ANZ Job Ads Series will remain a critical indicator of economic momentum over the months ahead," Mr Hogan added.
The official employment numbers are due for release this Thursday, 9 September. ANZ expects some modest growth in total employment, lead by full-time jobs following the recent softness. Employment is forecast to rise by 18,000 in August. The unemployment rate is expected to ease slightly to 5.0 percent in August, before heading up to 5¼% by the end of 2011 and 5½% by mid 2012
In trend terms, total job advertisements declined by 0.5 percent m/m in August, recording their fifth consecutive monthly decline. Annual trend growth decelerated sharply to 6.2 percent and this series is now running well below its long-term average.
Newspaper job advertisements
The number of job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers fell by 3.0% m/m in August. Although newspaper job advertisements are now 15.6% lower than a year ago, internet job advertisements have actually increased by 7.3% y/y over the same period. The divergence between the two advertising mediums can largely be attributed structural changes in the industry, in which newspapers are losing market share to on-line advertising.
In trend terms, the number of newspaper job advertisements fell by 2.5% m/m in August and are now 14.0% lower than this time last year.
In August, newspaper job advertisements fell across all states and territories with the exception of the Northern Territory. The largest fall was recorded in Western Australia (-4.4% m/m), more than reversing the 0.9% increase in July. Declines were also recorded in New South Wales (-4.3% m/m), Queensland (-4.1% m/m), the ACT (-3.8% m/m), Victoria (-3.3% m/m), South Australia (-3.2% m/m), Tasmania (-2.6% m/m). Newspaper job advertisements increased sharply in the Northern Territory (+19.4% m/m).
Internet job advertisements
The number of internet job advertisements fell by 0.5% in August. Internet advertising is now 4.2% lower than the recent peak in March this year. While remaining 7.3% higher than a year ago, this is the slowest pace of annual growth in eighteen months (see Table 4).
In trend terms, internet job advertisements fell by 0.4% m/m, recording the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Annual trend growth has now slowed to 7.3% and is sitting well below its long term average.