Cyclone Alfred's Landfall Delayed: Could It Strengthen To Category 3?

Cyclone Alfred has stalled off the coast overnight and is now expected to make landfall by either late Friday or early Saturday, which is later than predicted. This delay raises the question -- could the cyclone escalate to category three before reaching the coast?

Cyclones are unpredictable, and a delayed arrival can impact their strength. They gain energy from warm ocean waters, meaning the longer they stay over water, the more powerful they can become. However, that doesn't seem to be the case with Cyclone Alfred, which was initially expected to reach land as a category two storm.

Cyclone Alfred unlikely to reach category 3

The Bureau of Meteorology has said, "There was some concern yesterday that may further develop into a category three — the chances of that have reduced," ABC News reported.

A category two cyclone brings strong winds that can cause minor damage to houses, major damage to signs, trees, and caravans, and heavy crop losses.

Cyclone Alfred might weaken further to a category one system as it moves over Moreton Bay before reaching the coast.

However, senior forecaster Jonathan How advised people not to focus too much on the cyclone's category. He explained that the category only refers to wind speed at landfall and does not account for other dangers like heavy rain or rough surf.

Even a category one cyclone can lead to flooding and create hazardous conditions.

Why did cyclone Alfred slow down?

Cyclone Alfred has slowed down due to the "steering flow," which refers to the average wind speed between 2 km and 10 km in the atmosphere. On March 4, the cyclone encountered a high-pressure ridge over the Tasman Sea.

This ridge changed its path from a southeast direction and pushed it toward the Queensland coast. According to cyclone expert Prof. Liz Ritchie-Tyo from Monash University, high-pressure ridges usually have lighter winds, which contributed to the slowdown.

The slowdown was not initially detected by weather models because the cyclone shifted toward the coast slightly further north than expected. This small change weakened the steering flow, making predictions less accurate. However, newer model updates have now adjusted to this shift.