cyclone
Gale-force winds of up to 120 km/h are forecast to begin as early as Wednesday. Pixabay

New South Wales (NSW) was facing a cyclone watch for the first time in 35 years, as Tropical Cyclone Alfred brings the risk of damaging winds, intense rainfall, and possible flash flooding, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) warned.

Cyclone Alfred, which is currently located about 550 km east of Brisbane and moving toward the southern Queensland coast, is a Category 1 system, which is forecast to strengthen to Category 2. As the cyclone strengthens, it is predicted to bring destructive winds strong enough to uproot trees, along with heavy to intense rainfall, News.com reports.

Residents across NSW and Queensland were warned by the authorities of the risk of flash flooding as the cyclone approached.

The coasts of Queensland and NSW were expected to be the most affected starting Wednesday, with the most severe conditions anticipated on Friday, when Alfred was forecast to make landfall.

The storm is expected to continue affecting the region through Saturday.

Rare for New South Wales

BOM's Steven Bernasconi highlighted the rarity of the cyclone watch for NSW, noting that it was the first time since Cyclone Nancy in 1990 that such a warning had been issued.

"This is unusual for NSW ... We don't often have tropical cyclones watches and warnings in the NSW jurisdiction," Bernasconi explained during a press briefing on Monday.

"In 1974, about 500 families were evacuated in Lismore after the cyclone made landfall around north east NSW, with landslides and railway lines cut. So depending on how this plays out, that's the sort of impact we're looking at," he added.

Gale-force winds were expected to hit the northeast corner of NSW within the next 24 and 48 hours, with significant waves and abnormally high tides already being recorded, Bernasconi pointed out.

As the cyclone continues to move toward the coast, it will bring severe weather conditions, including waves potentially reaching up to 8 m high and offshore swells up to 15 m.

Extreme winds of up to 100 km/h are expected for Thursday and Friday, along with widespread rain in the range of 100-300 mm.

Cyclone's uncertain path

While Alfred is still hundreds of kilometers away from the coast, it is expected to begin heading toward Australia on Tuesday, affecting areas between Brisbane and the Gold Coast, including Byron Bay.

However, BOM officials have cautioned that the cyclone's track remains uncertain, and areas from Sandy Cape in Queensland to Grafton in NSW could be at risk. Gale-force winds of up to 120 km/h are forecast to begin as early as Wednesday.

According to BOM senior meteorologist Sarah Scully, the rainfall totals are highly dependent on the cyclone's path and intensity.

"The heaviest rainfall total is highly dependent on the path, intensity and the speed of the tropical cyclone," BOM senior meteorologist Sarah Scully said Monday. "We do have the potential to have daily rainfall totals between 200-400 mm possible."

Flood watches have been issued across multiple catchments in both states, with warnings in place for regions such as K'gari (Fraser Island) and the northern parts of NSW.

"(There will be) a likely crossing either late Thursday night or in the early hours of Friday morning," Scully said.

Liz Ritchie-Tyo, professor of atmospheric sciences at Monash University, said the exact landfall location of Alfred remained uncertain due to multiple factors, such as wind conditions and other nearby weather systems, Sky News reported.

She noted that tropical cyclones forming off the east coast of Australia typically move south and east, away from the coastline, but Alfred's current southeast trajectory is being influenced by a midlatitude trough. Once this low-pressure system passes, a high-pressure ridge will steer the cyclone back toward the coast.

Flash flooding and dangerous surf conditions expected

Authorities have warned of "dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding" due to the heavy rainfall expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Dangerous surf conditions were also predicted along parts of the southeastern Queensland and northeastern NSW coasts. With hazardous conditions for swimming, boating, and rock fishing, residents have been urged to stay vigilant.

A flood watch has been issued in advance of the increasing rainfall, with residents in affected regions encouraged to stay up-to-date with the latest forecasts and warnings from BOM.

NSW Emergency Services Minister Jihad Dib acknowledged the potential for severe weather, especially in the northern part of the state, which was still recovering from the devastating floods in Lismore just a year ago.

"We will do everything we can in working with that community, in making sure that our communities are well prepared, well protected, and can respond to whatever comes our way," Dib said.

Preparations underway in Queensland

As the storm approaches, Queensland Premier David Crisafulli has urged residents to prepare for potentially severe conditions, particularly those living on the islands and coastal areas.

Low-lying areas along the coast, including canal and beachfront properties, were expected to face the greatest risks, with Crisafulli stressing the importance of residents in these areas preparing for the worst.

The state's health workers are also being positioned ahead of the storm's landfall.