BUSINESS

The Overnight Report: Let Them Eat Cake

By Greg PeelThe Dow closed down 10 points or 01% while the S&P added less than 0.1% to 1321 and the Nasdaq was steady.Wall Street posted its most significant fall for a while last night on the open as the situation in Egypt boiled over once more. But while the 83 point early drop in the Dow suggested the winning streak on the Street might be well and truly broken this time, such a move a year or two ago would have brought reports of “Wall Street little changed”. And once again the weakness was brief as the US shrugged off problems in the rest of the world and returned to looking inward.The end result was a slight positive for the S&P 500 while the crisis centre du jour hung in the balance waiting to hear wether President Mubarak would this time actually depart. As we speak he remains resolute with some sort of announcement pending.But just as Egypt was erupting once more, the ghosts of 2010 came back to haunt bond markets as Portuguese debt suddenly took a turn for the worse and traded at historically high yields. Traders were stuck for a specific explanation but were reminded that Europe's debt problems are very much still with us.The end result of both ex-US developments was a 0.8% bounce in the US dollar index to 78.23. Yet Wall Street otherwise appeared to stay quite calm, and movements in other markets were equally timid.Gold had barely moved on the close at US$1361.40/oz after initially dipping on the dollar's jump. Base metals were similarly little changed with copper stronger but still sitting just under 10,000/t. Oil rose US2c to US$86.73/bbl. The Aussie slipped 0.7 of a cent to US$1.0044.Were it not for another profit warning from Dow component Cisco, which saw the stock down 14% in the session to almost match the unprecedented 16% drop marked in November on an earlier profit warning, Wall Street would have posted yet another modest but healthy gain. Perhaps the most telling figure was the VIX volatility index. Egypt is in turmoil, Portugal is back to haunt us, yet the VIX ticked up only very slightly and still reads 16.No one on Wall Street seems to care anymore what happens elsewhere. America is strong again, apparently, and that's all that matters.Earlier the Bank of England decided to leave its cash rate at the longstanding 0.5% level despite many in the market assuming maybe a hike was due. Commentators suggest it was a close run thing nevertheless, with policy-makers tossing up between strict austerity measures on the one hand and rising inflation on the other. The lack of change helped the US dollar surge ahead.The SPI Overnight was down 12 points or 0.2%.The highlight today of the local result season will be Newcrest ((NCM)) and RBA governor Glenn Stevens is also due to make a regular testimony to parliament. China is also due to release its monthly round of economic data today, although economic calendar collators are not 100% sure. Beijing is not one for sticking religiously to schedules.Your editor Rudi Filapek-Vandyck will feature on BoardRoomRadio's Friday Afternoon Round Table later today (3pm live).[Note: All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.]FN Arena is building the future of financial news reporting at www.fnarena.com . Our daily news reports can be trialed at no cost and with no obligations. Simply sign up and get a feel for what we are trying to achieve.Subscribers and trialists should read our terms and conditions, available on the website.All material published by FN Arena is the copyright of the publisher, unless otherwise stated. Reproduction in whole or in part is not permitted without written permission of the publisher.
More news

Australian Fairtrade sales triple to $120 million

Australia continues to be one of the world’s fastest growing markets for Fairtrade Certified products with sales tripling in just 12 months to over $120 million in 2010, Fairtrade Australia & New Zealand (Fairtrade ANZ) announced today.

Thiess Services JV secures $350M Telstra deal

Leighton Holdings Ltd (ASX:LEI) says its Thiess Services will benefit from a major five year Telstra contract awarded to Silcar, a joint venture company between Thiess Services and Siemens Ltd.

Gold Coast real estate agency for sale

One of the most well known real estate agencies in the market, Ray White is selling their franchise for the Gold Coast market of Broadbeach after it was placed in receivership in 2010.

Qantas rejects claims from pilots’ union

Australia’s national carrier Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) says claims being made by the Australian and International Pilots Association (AIPA) about Qantas pilots’ job security being under threat are completely unfounded.

Stay Invested for the Long Haul

How to Have a Sound Financial Plan and Stay Invested for the Long Haulby Marc Lichtenfeld , Investment U’s Healthcare Specialist Wednesday, February 9, 2011: Issue #1446“Even the Roman Empire took 400 years to fall. I assume your investment horizon is a little shorter than that.” So said my colleague, Alexander Green, at The Oxford Club’s recent Private Wealth Seminar in Costa Rica. His words were a warning shot to any investors listening to the investment doom-and-gloomers out there, busily predicting the end of the world. Alex was driving home a point that we’ve made countless times here at Investment U: Markets rise and fall, and trying to time them is an act in futility.So what should you do instead? Simple. Have a sound financial plan and stay invested for the long haul. And the best route to success? See below…Concerned? Let History Ease Your WorriesAlex’s discussion got me thinking about the woes of the past few years and how people are having a tough time envisioning a meaningful recovery . I won’t rehash the myriad problems and ugly statistics here. You know what they are by now. What I will say, though, is that while the climate is undoubtedly tough, is it really so different from previous downturns? I’m not talking about the epic crashes of 1929 and 1987… everyone’s done that. Rather, I’m referring to lesser-known crises. Why? Because while they caused a similar level of panic that we’ve seen today, they not only worked themselves out… but the economy actually prospered afterwards. For example…How Silver and a Railroad Collapse Triggered the Crash of 1873Heard of the Panic of 1873? A worldwide depression was triggered when Germany stopped minting silver thaler coins, used in Europe for over 350 years. The decision sparked a drop in silver demand and set off a ripple effect… American silver mines suffered, as did railroads, which hauled less silver. Like the dotcom boom, railroads were highly speculative and 89 out of 364 went bankrupt. That caused several major banks to fail, too. U.S. policy changed from backing coins with gold and silver to just gold. This was seen as a sign of an instable money supply and investors refused to buy long-term U.S. bonds, which drove interest rates higher.The New York Stock Exchange stopped trading for 10 days. Over 18,000 businesses failed and unemployment shot up to 14% in 1876. Construction was halted, wages were cut, real estate fell and corporate profits disappeared. In response, voters turned against the incumbent Republicans, handing control of the House to the Democrats in 1874. Sound familiar? The crisis lifted in 1879 and the country enjoyed prosperity until the next downturn in 1893…Deja-Vu in 1893In 1893, rampant railroad speculation again sent the U.S. economy off the tracks. As railroads and banks collapsed, unemployment soared from 3% in 1892 to 11.7% in 1893 to 18.4% in 1894. It was the worst depression the United States had ever seen (until the 1930s). In the 1894 elections, the Democrats got hammered at the polls and lost control of Congress. Again, sound familiar? The economy recovered in 1897 and by 1899, unemployment sat at 6.5%, with rapid GDP growth occurring. I’d bet my last dollar that if you’d told an American in 1894 that economies are cyclical and include booms and busts, they’d have responded, “This time it’s different.” They’d have issued the same call in 1907, 1919, 1973, 1987 and 2000. And they’ve been saying it since 2008. Here’s what you need to remember…Different Problems… Different Solutions… And the “Cure All” Investment PhilosophyIn each crisis, a different set of circumstances and problems caused the destruction of so much wealth. Hence, the solutions were different, too. And such fluctuations have occurred since the Declaration of Independence. My guess is that some time in the 23rd century, while people are panicking over the crumbling in value of their lunar real estate, jetpack stocks and the collapse of the banks that funded their speculation, they’ll tell anyone who’ll listen, “This time it’s different.” And the economic Armageddon of 2008 will be consigned to history as just another in a long list of financial panics. And the solution throughout all this upheaval? Want Solid, Steady Investment Returns? Go Fishin’…Regular readers will know that Alex Green recommends The Oxford Club’s “ Gone Fishin’ Portfolio .” Based on his own tried-and-tested investment philosophy, it’s a portfolio of no-load, low-expense mutual funds (mostly index funds) across a variety of asset classes that keeps you diversified and in the market. And most importantly, you don’t have to think about them day in and day out. It’s the foundation on which The Oxford Club’s investing methodology is built and has helped members generate an enormous amount of wealth. It’s also led the independent Hulbert Financial Digest to rank The Oxford Club’s Communiqu

Copper's Double Top Suggests Correction Pending

FNArena has added another video to its Investors Education section on the website.ATW's Jerry Simmons explains why his analysis suggests US equities seem poised for a sizeable correction. This view is further strengthened by a double top formation for copper, traditionally a leading indicator for risk assets and global investor sentiment. Total duration of this video is 53 mins.SummaryIn this educational video, Jerry Simmons, Lead Mentor and Co-Founder of the Advanced Trading Workshop, Inc. explains in detail how ATW tools are used to project completion targets of 5-wave-moves, taking the S&P500 as an example. He goes on to predict a high probability of a turn-around in the 1320 – 1350 area for the S&P500, taking it down to 1230-1250 and possibly as far down as 1200. However, this major reversal is subject to the usual ATW Reversal Confirmation Steps, the most important of which is a weekly RBO (Reversal Break-Out). Conclusion: TIGHTEN YOUR STOPS! If the reversal occurs in the S&P500, it is likely to take down most equity markets and the bonds with it.In copper, a leading indicator, a confirmed break-out below US$4.45 would confirm a Double Top and significantly increase chances for an extended down move; “copper is a bubble”. But there is always the opposite case to consider, and that would be a confirmed break-out above US$4.68. The current level is a “make-it-or-break-it” level. Hic Rhodos, hic salta!CommentsS&P500Jerry analyses the S&P500 cash index (TradeStation: $INX) and concludes:• Any trader, including day traders, should always consider multi-time-frames and not only one time frame, including a weekly and even a monthly chart.• The low in the S&P500 was on 6/3/09 at 666.79; in any market, a 100% move up, i.e. doubling, is a significant milestone. In the case of the S&P500, that corresponds to 1332, a mere 10 S&P500 points from where we are now.• “It is unbelievable, how profitable you can be as a trader, just trading weekly break-outs.”• For the S&P500 and hence most world equity markets, it is “time to tighten stops” and lock-in profits made on the way up in this explosive bull-market since March 2009.CopperWith the price moving back down from the high on Friday, we are still within a Double Top and coming off it. If we get a confirmed break-out below US$4.45 this would confirm the Double Top and significantly increase the likelihood of an extended down move. On the other hand, a break-out above US$4.68, less likely, would send copper much higher.NASDAQ and Russell 2000With the S&P500 having made new highs, and the NASDAQ and the Russell2000 not following suit until recently, a bearish divergence formed, begging the question, who was right, the S&P500 or the NASDAQ/Russell2000? Since then, both the NASDAQ and the Russell2000 have also made new highs; hence, the bearish divergence has disappeared. This sequence of a bearish divergence developing and then disappearing is often the harbinger of a turnaround, another sign in the direction of a significant pull-back in the equities markets developingTo view the ATW Strategic Prep Video (originally from November 29, 2010) titled "Analysis INX_HG_TY_TRAN" click HERE or visit the FNArena Investors Education section of the website.Here's the direct link: http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_front_videosAll views expressed are Jerry Simmons's, not FNArena's (see our disclaimer).Jerry Simmons has over 25 years of full-time trading experience. He is the senior partner and head mentor for the “Masters” Programme within the education system at New York based Advanced Trading Workshop (ATW). ATW recently set up shop in Australia through the establishment of ATW Australia (since mid-2010).FNArena is pleased to have Jerry Simmons as a highly valued contributor to its service which aims at both educating investors and assisting them with their own market analyses.The above mentioned videos can be accessed via the FNArena Investor Education section at http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_minc_education)About ATW AustraliaFounded in June 2010, ATW Australia is a “one-stop-shop for all a trader needs to succeed”: quality education for new traders, superb advanced trading education, fast unfiltered data, a world-leading trading platform, customer oriented competitive brokerage, quality ‘Made in the USA’ specialized trading computers, trading magazines, and the all-important psychological mentoring and coaching for traders. The trading educational products are provided by the Advanced Trading Workshop, Inc. in New York, all other services are provided by a network of partners that were chosen based on their superior products and services in their specific field of expertise. FNArena is one such partner.To learn more visit www.advancedtradingworkshop.com.au.FN Arena is building the future of financial news reporting at www.fnarena.com . Our daily news reports can be trialed at no cost and with no obligations. Simply sign up and get a feel for what we are trying to achieve.Subscribers and trialists should read our terms and conditions, available on the website.All material published by FN Arena is the copyright of the publisher, unless otherwise stated. Reproduction in whole or in part is not permitted without written permission of the publisher.

World Market Overview Report 10/2/2011

U.S. stocks slipped Wednesday, as investors balanced a pair of positive blue chip earnings reports against concerns that the market may be set for a breather after seven straight days of gains.

Daily forex forecast - 10/2/2011

Domestic consumer confidence data for February came in at 1.9% yesterday which was a major improvement on the January figure (negative 5.7%) however, the Aussie retreated marginally during the Asian trading session touching US101.30 cents.

The Overnight Report: Taking A Breather

By Greg PeelThe Dow closed up 6 points while the S&P fell 0.3% to 1320 and the Nasdaq lost 0.3%.Wall Street had marked seven straight days of consistent gains and a 5% rise in 2011 in the broad market S&P 500 with little volatility, so it surprised no one last night that some profit-taking emerged. The market was higher mid-morning but thereafter tipped into the red. The large-cap Dow managed to nip back into the black only on the death.A notable counterpoint to the rise in stocks has been the fall in bond prices, which has seen the benchmark ten-year yield run from just over 2.5% in November to over 3.7% this week. But yields, too, were in for a correction, and foreign central banks and sovereign funds lent a hand.Continuing with the pattern of late last year, demand for Treasury bonds at the short end and the very long end has waned. But the ten-years have been consistently sought after as a parking station for foreign reserves over this period, and last night was no different. Tuesday's three-year note auction was a fizzer but last night's ten-year auction met with strong demand, forcing the yield down seven basis points to 3.67%. Foreign governments bought a record 71%, well above the running average of 44%.The ten-year yield had already tipped over mid-morning in line with stocks, suggesting a correcting flow-back of money from stocks to bonds. The auction result only served to spike up bond prices. The recent run-up in Treasury yields is all about the recovering US economy, suggested Ben Bernanke to the House Budget Committee last night, and nothing to do with local inflation fears. Bernanke maintained his view that unemployment, although showing some signs of improvement, will remain stronger for longer. He dismissed any notion of inflation being reflected in bond yields and reiterated that US inflation will remain very low for some time. He did, however, confirm that the Fed would abandon QE measures and raise rates as soon as inflation looked like taking off.So deflationary forces in the US are keeping a lid on inflation and as such the Treasury can print as much money as it likes. Never mind that this policy is causing inflation problems around the rest of the globe. It's not the Fed's problem. However, aside from kick-starting the US economic recovery there is little doubt QE2 has another intended purpose. If Chinese authorities won't bow to entreaties to revalue their currency voluntarily, then American authorities can smoke them out. Two recent Chinese rate rises are testament to China's inherited inflation problems.The other news on the Street last night was that (shock, horror) that bastion of American capitalist supremacy – the New York Stock Exchange – is in merger talks with Deutsche Bourse with intentions of forming the world's largest exchange company. Oh the irony. Old soldiers will be turning in their graves. But if the merger is successful, the ASX ((ASX)) will have a stronger case to argue in its attempts to merge with the SGX.[Just as an aside, I was told last week by a more than reliable source that the market monitoring responsibilities taken by ASIC from the ASX rely on “prehistoric” systems and modernisation moves are glacial. SGX systems, on the other hand, are state of the art.]Bernanke's down-play of US inflation was enough to send the US dollar index lower last night by nearly 0.5% to 77.61. But increasingly the relationship between commodities and commodity currencies and the reserve currency is becoming fractured.The Aussie has fallen a third of a cent since this time yesterday to US$1.0114, albeit the Battler seems currently stuck in a US$1.01-02 range. The limited bounce in Westpac's consumer confidence survey for February released yesterday, after the flood affected January survey had shown a big drop, likely added to weakness.Gold stood still last night at US$1364.10/oz despite the greenback's fall and over in London all eyes were on Chinese metal buyers returning from their week-long break. Normally they'd be buyers, but one look at copper over US$10,000/t and they stayed out. Copper thus fell 1% to just under the 10k mark and other metals fell in sympathy. Oil also fell, by US23c to US$86.71/bbl.The SPI Overnight fell 5 points.It will be an interesting next 24 hours. In Australia today the result season highlights include Rio Tinto ((RIO)) and Telstra ((TLS)) while the local unemployment data will be released. China will (in theory) release its January trade balance today, albeit the move on rates has already been made.Tonight the Bank of England will hold a monetary policy meeting. It was only a few months ago that traders were convinced the BoE would also be announcing another round of QE, but in the interim Britain's economic data have been no less than astounding. So tonight there is a strong expectation the BoE will finally lift its cash rate above the longstanding 0.5% level.My esteemed editor will be appearing on the Lunch Money program on Sky Business today at midday. [Note: All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.]FN Arena is building the future of financial news reporting at www.fnarena.com . Our daily news reports can be trialed at no cost and with no obligations. Simply sign up and get a feel for what we are trying to achieve.Subscribers and trialists should read our terms and conditions, available on the website.All material published by FN Arena is the copyright of the publisher, unless otherwise stated. Reproduction in whole or in part is not permitted without written permission of the publisher.

Queensland climate becoming more extreme, says expert

As Queensland copes with the impacts of the 2010-2011 wet season, research undertaken by the Australian Institute of Marine Science shows the frequency of extreme rainfall events has increased since the late 19th century.

Talent2 Reaping Upgrades

By Chris ShawHuman resources and employment services group Talent2 International ((TWO)) reported an interim profit of $3.4 million, a result that was 85% higher than for the previous corresponding period.Stockbroker Moelis suggests Talent2 was a beneficiary of sustained improvement in employment activity across the Asia Pacific region, this trend having been in place since late in 2009. The interim result showed revenue growth of 36% and EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) growth of 61%.Talent2 has two main divisions – Recruitment and Managed Services, and both performed well during the period. Recruitment, which accounts for 41% of group revenues, delivered a 58% increase in EBITDA, while Managed Services, which generates the balance of group revenues, recorded a 61% increase in EBITDA.RBS Australia was particularly positive on the performance of the Managed Services division, suggesting it shows a recovery in earnings for that part of the business is now underway. The division also offers good potential for further growth in the broker's view, as there is more upside from client wins via RPO outsourcing operations and via the expansion of existing mandates.As well, RBS Australia points out a reconfiguring of the Payroll business towards small and medium-sized businesses has improved demand for the service, while also generating some scale benefits from an increase in payslips.Talent2 is on a solid footing to finance further growth, Goldman Sachs noting post the December half the group had a strong balance sheet with net debt of $8.5 million and free cash flow of $5.6 million. The latter was an increase of 86%, reflecting good working capital control and the strong earnings growth achieved in the period.International markets are one likely source of further earnings growth in the view of Goldman Sachs, reflected in the fact these operations generated a 61% increase in revenues to $28 million in the December half. The international businesses now account for 19% of Talent2's total revenues.On the back of Talent2's interim, RBS Australia has lifted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts by 2-6% through FY13, meaning its estimates now stand at 10.6c this year, 14.3c in FY12 and 16.8c in FY13. RBS Australia is the only broker in the FNArena database to cover Talent2.Moelis has made no changes to its estimates, which stand at 10.4c, 13.2c and 15.2c respectively, while Goldman Sachs is forecasting EPS outcomes of 10.2c, 14c and 16.9c for FY11-FY13.Based on its forecasts, Goldman Sachs estimates Talent2 is trading on an earnings multiple of 15.7 times this year and 11.4 times in FY12. The broker sees this as attractive given the earnings growth outlook and to reflect this it has upgraded to a Buy rating, from Hold previously.RBS Australia has also upgraded to a Buy ratingfrom Hold previously, again on valuation grounds. RBS's numbers suggest a FY12 earnings multiple of 11.2 times, which would be in line with the Small Industrials average according to the broker. This implies the stock is relatively cheap given a historical multiple premium of around 25%. Post Talent2's interim, Moelis makes no change to its Buy rating, the broker setting its price target at $2.00. This is broadly in line with the targets of RBS Australia and Goldman Sachs, which stand at $1.95 (up from $1.53) and $2.05 respectively. Shares in Talent2 today are higher and as at 12.35pm the stock was up 5.5c or 3.4% at $1.655. This compares to a trading range over the past year of $1.25 to $1.75 and implies upside of around 20% relative to the average price target for the stock among the three brokers.FN Arena is building the future of financial news reporting at www.fnarena.com . Our daily news reports can be trialed at no cost and with no obligations. Simply sign up and get a feel for what we are trying to achieve.Subscribers and trialists should read our terms and conditions, available on the website.All material published by FN Arena is the copyright of the publisher, unless otherwise stated. Reproduction in whole or in part is not permitted without written permission of the publisher.

Results: Cochlear Down, Despite Higher Profit, Dividend

Hearing implant maker Cochlear may have beaten analyst forecasts with a 16% rise in first-half net profit on an 8% rise in sales, but it couldn't win over a suddenly sceptical market yesterday.The shares jumped by more than 1.4%, or $1.10, to $78.60, before losing the lot in the trading from around 11 am to close down $1.32, or 1.7%, at $76.18.The market ignored the better result, positive outlook and an 11% rise in interim dividend to $1.05 a share from 95c in the first half of last financial year.The rise in sales and profits came mostly from higher sales of its new Nucleus 5 device.Cochlear said net profit rose to $87.2 million in the six months to December 31, from $75.25 million a year earlier.The result beat analyst expectations for earnings of $83.6 million, according to the average of three forecasts. But other analysts reckoned the result fell short of their guesses.Stripping out

Woolworths denies CEO’s imminent departure

Giant supermarket operator Woolworths confirmed reports that recruitment firm Ergon Zehnder is on the lookout for new executives that would fill up vacancies in the retail group.

Moccona's romantic Valentine's Day iphone app

Moccona is giving romantics a little help this Valentine's Day with the launch of the free ‘Go Somewhere Special' application, for iPhone users who are heading out on a date on February 14th.The iPhone application encourages people to embrace more romance and add an element of mystery when inviting their partner or a special someone on a date this Valentine's Day. Through the use of augmented reality technology, the app will guide the chosen recipient to the date location with a trail ...

Commodity costs bite into Sara Lee profits

Sara Lee yesterday (8 February) posted a slump in underlying quarterly profits as rising commodity costs hit earnings.The US food group, which plans to split in two next year, booked net income from continuing operations of US$107m for its fiscal second quarter, which ended on 1 January. In the previous year's second quarter, the figure stood at $298m.On a reported basis, Sara Lee's net income was $882m, up from $376m a year ago. However, this year's figure included a gain on the sale o...

World Market Overview Report 9/2/2011

The consumer sector led U.S. stocks higher Tuesday after McDonald's posted strong January sales, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its seventh straight gain.

Australian Stock Market Report - Morning 9/2/2011

The People´s Bank of China has lifted interest rates for the second time in just over a month. The 1-year deposit rate will be lifted 25 basis points to 3.00pct while the 1-year lending rate is up 25bps to 6.06pct.

Australian dollar outlook 9/2/2011

The Australian Dollar was choppy last night following the decision by the People's Bank of China(PboC) to raise benchmark lending rates by 0.25% to6.06%, the second rate hike in six weeks.

Pages