BUSINESS

Downer flags another delay on RailCorp project

Downer EDI informed the Australian Stock Exchange on Thursday that it is set to take a hit of up to $250 million on its Waratah train project, apart from the $190 million provision the company had previously booked in June 2010.

Australian dollar outlook 27/1/2011

The Australian dollar has been largelyunaffected by last night's FOMC rate announcement.Given there was no new news from the Federal Reserve,the reactioEdit Htmln from currency markets was relativelysubdued.

The Overnight Report: Resistance Holds At 12,000

By Rudi Filapek-VandyckDJIA closed up 8.25pts to 11,985, while the S&P500 gained 5.45pts to 1296 and the Nasdaq closed up 20.25pts at 2739.50.First it was Barack Obama's State of the Union speech. Then it was speculation about what the Fed's monetary meeting might deliver. Then it was the outcome of the Fed's meeting. Buyers found enough reasons to move back into global equity markets and other risk assets on Wednesday. The Dow Industrials traded above the magical 12,000 level for most of the day, while the S&P500 continued threatening a break above 1300, but as the last hour of the overnight session kicked in, so too did selling orders and US indices closed well off their highs on the day.Another chance missed to take the 12 for the Dow and the 13 for the S&P500.There was a positive print from the US housing market to fuel overall optimism earlier on the day. US New Home sales proved stronger than expected increasing to 329,000 up from a revised 280,000 and higher than market consensus at 300,000. Economists were quick in pointing out the jump came off ultra-depressed levels and new homes sales remain at "extremely depressed levels" - Mr Market wouldn't have any of it and took the glass as being half full. Never mind that many an economist believes that, with mortgage rates rising in recent months, sales could decline further over the coming months (double-dip for housing anyone?).On the other hand, the optimists can counter that the overnight release marked the biggest increase in sales in 18 years and the highest level of sales in eight months.Before the opening bell on Wall Street, European investors were equally in a positive mood. The German DAX closed the session 1.0% higher at 7127, the FTSE 100 rose 0.9% to 5969 and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.3% to 2968. Obama's speech did not only mention "spending freeze", the President also proposed to cut the corporate tax rate.Buying orders started accelerating once it had been confirmed the US Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target rate unchanged between zero and 0.25%. The Fed pretty much stuck to its views from late 2010 and will thus continue expanding its holdings of securities as outlined after the November meeting.Economists at CIBC summed it up as follows:"As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at zero, and announced no change in its QE2 program, leaving rates at exceptionally low levels for an "extended period". The description of the economy was not much changed from the November meeting, seeing household spending picking up (previously described as only moderate) along with business equipment, but ongoing weakness in housing, and inflation stable. That slightly better description doesn't alter the view that the pace of growth is still "insufficient" in terms of generating job growth, and not a threat to inflation. QE2 plan stays at $600 bn, and there is no longer a vote against it, with Hoenig having dropped out as a voter, and Plosser, a QE critic, not opting to vote against the statement. No market impact likely, although the curve has priced in some rate hikes for late 2011 that we see as highly unlikely."Currency markets didn't really know what to make of it all and big movements remained absent last night. The euro held between US$1.3650 and US$1.3715 over European and US trade and was near US$1.3680 in late US trade. The Aussie dollar eased from US99.95c to US99.30c in European and US trade but was near US99.55c in late US trade. And the Japanese yen eased from 82.00 yen per US dollar to near JPY82.55, and was near JPY82.50 in late US trade.US treasury prices hit session lows (yields higher) following the Federal Reserve statement. A better-than-expected new home sales result and increased supply of bonds combined to weigh on prices. On Wednesday US$35 billion of five-year notes were sold and US$29 billion of seven-year notes will be sold on Thursday. US 2yr yields rose 5pts to 0.64% and US 10yr yields rose 9pts to 3.43%.Crude oil and base metals markets recovered strongly from steep losses in the previous session. The Nymex crude oil contract rose by US$1.14 to US$87.33 a barrel. Base metal prices on the London Metal Exchange equally took their cue from general optimism. Zinc rose 2.7%, lead rose 2.5% and nickel rose 2.3%. Share prices of mining stocks responded accordingly.Precious metals had a better session as well with silver significantly outperforming gold.Agricultural commodities were also mostly carried higher. Sugar was the biggest mover, rising 4.1% on renewed concerns about global supply this year. Wheat was also up strongly, rising 2.2% after Algeria reported it had accelerated its grain imports to try to head off possible social unrest over higher food prices. Corn rose 2.1% while soybeans rose 0.8%.Central bankers in New Zealand and Japan have kept interest rates unchanged, while India tightened. Later today we will welcome weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders and pending home sales data in the US. During the local session we will see the first corporate results and more trading updates and quarterly production reports being released. See our calendar for more details.Greg Peel returns on Monday. I will be on Sky Business today (Lunch Money, 12-1pm)[Note: All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.]FN Arena is building the future of financial news reporting at www.fnarena.com . Our daily news reports can be trialed at no cost and with no obligations. Simply sign up and get a feel for what we are trying to achieve.Subscribers and trialists should read our terms and conditions, available on the website.All material published by FN Arena is the copyright of the publisher, unless otherwise stated. Reproduction in whole or in part is not permitted without written permission of the publisher.
More news

Oil Search Upside Remains Tied To PNG Project

By Chris ShawOil Search recorded solid production for the December quarter of 2010, the result being full year output of 7.66mmboe (million barrels of oil equivalent) came in a little above the company's guidance of a result between 7.2-7.4mmboe.Guidance for 2011 is for a result of 6.2-6.7mmboe. Analysts at Citi note the coming year will show lower production thanks to planned shut-downs in the second and fourth quarters related to work on the LNG project in Papua New Guinea.Longer-term, Deutsche Bank notes while production in 2012 should be higher than in 2011 it should then be relatively flat in 2013, which should limit earnings growth over the next couple of years as the LNG project continues to progress.Given the solid production numbers in the period, revenues for the December quarter were also better than the market had been anticipating, the US$156.8 million in sales revenues beating UBS's forecast for the period by 19%.The one minor disappointment in the quarterly report was what BA-ML viewed as an implied delay to drilling work at the Hides project, which is now scheduled for sometime this year rather than the previous guidance of sometime in the coming six months. RBS similarly picked up on this, but sees it as a short-term issue only for Oil Search.On the back of the better than expected result there have been increases to 2010 earnings forecasts across the market, BA Merrill Lynch lifting its net profit after tax forecast by 14% to US$131 million. RBS Australia's forecast for 2010 has increased by US$11 million to $131.2 million, while Citi has made minor changes to its numbers.Numbers for 2011 have generally been reduced though, Citi and Deutsche Bank both lowering their numbers by 16% to account for lower production in the year ahead. In earnings per share (EPS) terms forecasts for Oil Search according to the FNArena database now range from US9-11c for 2010 and from US10-12.8c in 2011.The changes in earnings forecasts factored in by the market has done little to impact on valuations for Oil Search, JP Morgan noting the lift in its 2010 numbers was largely offset by cuts in both 2011 and 2012.The impact on price targets have been similarly minor, UBS lifting its target slightly at the same time as BA-ML has dropped its target by 20c. The average price target according to the FNArena database stands at $7.94.Recommendations are also unchanged, the database showing Oil Search is rated as Buy four times, Hold three times and Underperform once. UBS retains its Buy rating, continuing to see upside for the stock as production increases and from the potential development of a third LNG train at the PNG project.This scope for expansion at the PNG project equally helps underpin Deutsche Bank's Buy rating, while JP Morgan is a little more conservative given an expansion requires sufficient gas reserves to be proved up. As this is yet to occur, the broker does not ascribe full value of any expansion in its model at present. Citi offers the same argument in justifying its Hold rating.RBS Australia also rates Oil Search as a Hold, but points out on a two to three year view the stock offers good value as the PNG LNG project is gradually de-risked and as expansion options crystallise.Shares in Oil Search today are slightly higher and as at 12.40pm the stock was up 3c at $6.78. This compares to a range over the past year of $4.97 to $7.20 and implies upside of almost 17% to the consensus price target in FNArena's database.FN Arena is building the future of financial news reporting at www.fnarena.com . Our daily news reports can be trialed at no cost and with no obligations. Simply sign up and get a feel for what we are trying to achieve.Subscribers and trialists should read our terms and conditions, available on the website.All material published by FN Arena is the copyright of the publisher, unless otherwise stated. Reproduction in whole or in part is not permitted without written permission of the publisher.

Daily forex forecast - 26/1/2011

The release yesterday of CPI (Consumer Price Index) sent the Australian Dollar down with the figure coming in for the quarter at 0.4% (compared with a forecast of 0.5%) and in doing so dampened any rate rise expectations in the near term by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Property developer Mirvac to take $215M provision

Real estate investment company Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) says it will take a $215 million provision against inventories because of slower than expected sales and oversupply and heavy discounting in regional markets.

Qantas flight to Melbourne suffers pressure loss in mid-air

Up to 99 passengers aboard a Qantas Airways en route to Melbourne got the scare of their lives when the aircraft’s suddenly depressurised mid-air and sent the plane rapidly plunging from its cruising altitude of 36,000 feet, down to 10,000 feet.

South Australians drop daily water use

South Australians have gradually cut their daily water consumption by a third in the last decade based on figures compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Chevron inks 20-year gas deal with Kyushu Electric

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) says its Australian subsidiary has signed a Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with Kyushu Electric Power Co. for a portion of Chevron's offtake of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gorgon Project.

Newcrest hails Q4 output, downgrades 2011 projection

Gold miner Newcrest Mining Ltd sent out its financial report on Tuesday, with varying results, where the company outlined its record production for the December quarter and its decision to nudge back a bit the firm’s full year gold production guidance.

Australian Stock Market Report - Morning 25/01/2011

The advance estimate of Germany´s composite purchasing managers index for January lifted from 60.3 to 61.0 - the highest reading since June 2006. Manufacturing fell from 60.7 to 60.2 but services rose from 59.2 to 60.0.

Daily forex forecast - 25/1/2011

The Australian Dollar dropped from 0.9890 to 0.9865 in quick fashion yesterday on the release of a weaker than expected reading in Producer Price Index.

Report says Australia will have a new face in 2020

Ten years ahead and Australia will be a sporting a new identity as a new report predicts of radical changes in the way the average Australian earns a living, chooses a house and whiles away leisure time, if that moment is still a possibility by the next decade.

Australia slowly emerges as prime market for online retail

Australia is fast-gaining a reputation as a global hub for online shopping, with no less than US giant internet retailer eBay reportedly alluding to the Aussie market as a viable and standout business consideration for web retailers.

Pages